Islam_Ambassada
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IS BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO CRASH?:FULL ANALYSIS
Hello everyone, today is May 12th, 2025.
As requested, I’m providing an updated analysis on $BTC along with a broader market overview.
Although I’ve shared a general analysis previously, this update will place extra emphasis on key points while introducing new confluences based on the latest data.
Please note that this breakdown is a bit detailed, so I encourage you to read it thoroughly. I may not respond to questions that have already been addressed within the article.
MONTHLY VIEW
Previously, I shared my belief that before the market dips below the current low, it’s more likely to break the current high at $109.9k.
I’ve already explained what I mean by the “current low”—on the higher time frame, that level is around $74.3k.
As I mentioned in my previous article, the current level I’m referring to is the one marked with a blue arrow.
In essence, my view is that the market will likely break the current high on the monthly time frame before any move below that low.
This perspective is important because it shapes how you interpret the market. Having a solid general outlook is essential, it helps you clearly identify the overall trend and avoid getting caught up in short-term noise.
Weekly view
What do you see on my screen?
This is the Bitcoin weekly time frame, and as shown, the market is in an uptrend.
Note:
The first step in any analysis is to identify the overall trend, as I mentioned at the beginning. The trend shapes every decision you make—it determines how you interpret price action on the lower time frames.
Currently, Bitcoin is moving upward on both the monthly and weekly charts.
This confirms that the general market direction is bullish—simply put, the market is trending upward.
Now let’s start breaking things down to explore opportunities on the lower time frames.
We’ll ask key questions like:
• If there’s manipulation on the lower time frames, can we still find chances to buy low?
• Should we sell now or take profit and wait for a re-entry?
Everyone’s goal is to make a profit—and to maximize it, you must develop the habit of buying low and selling high. That’s why many traders are uncertain whether to exit now or wait for a deeper dip or another pump.
Let’s dive deeper into the market structure and clarify this.
$BTC
The current weekly candle closed as a strong bullish candle, clearly indicated on the chart by the blue arrow.
This type of close shows that buyers are currently in control of the market. Given my overall bullish outlook—and the likelihood that we’ll break the current high—I believe it’s safer to continue holding Bitcoin rather than risk missing out on a potential breakout from this zone.
Unless we get a clear, valid reason to confirm a reversal, in this case we can stay patient and wait for a healthy pullback on the lower time frames before considering buy-back strategy.
At the moment, there’s no strong reason to sell, especially with the positive sentiment in the market and the current bullish structure.
Note:
This is a general market outlook, derived from the weekly and monthly time frames.
If we are to see any signs of reversal, confirmation will most likely come from the daily or 4-hour charts.
Keep reading as we zoom into the market for more detailed insights.
One key reason this structure remains bullish is because it does not show the characteristics of a valid triple top pattern.
Here’s why:
📝 There’s no strong bearish rejection at the third peak.
📝 The most recent candle, highlighted with the blue arrow, closed strong and bullish—not with a rejection wick or bearish engulfing pattern.
📝 Price has not broken below the neckline (around $91k), which is a critical condition for confirming a triple top reversal.
These points collectively suggest that the market is still favoring the bullish trend rather than signaling a reversal.
DAILY VIEW
Pay close attention to the blue zone marked on my screen.
As long as the weekly trend remains bullish, our overall bias stays bullish.
However, a reversal could be confirmed if the market starts showing signs of rejection within the $106k–$109k zone.
At the moment, I see no valid reason to sell.
I previously bought at $98k, took my first profit at $104k, and I’m now holding the remaining position in Bitcoin without reinvesting the portion I took out.
I’ve also chosen not to take profits at $106k—I’ll simply leave the rest of the position untouched.
I’m not topping up my position right now because I want to stay ready to buy back lower if we get a healthy pullback.
I’ll only consider adding more to my position after we get a clear breakout confirmation above the current resistance zone.
CONFIRMATION
If we get a strong bullish candle closing above the zone on the daily or 4-hour chart, that would serve as a clear confirmation for a fresh entry. At that point, I’ll be looking to top up my Bitcoin position and ride the next wave upward.
For now, the remaining percentage of my position is still in the market—and it’s more than enough to stay in profit comfortably.
A breakout above $110.5k—especially confirmed on the daily or weekly timeframe—will be my key signal.
As for the 4-hour timeframe, it requires more technical confirmation, so I’ll be actively monitoring it and available to guide on that when the time comes.
Personally, I plan to use limit orders just above the breakout high, as I usually do, to secure a quick and efficient entry when the move is confirmed.
Someone asked: “If the market dips, where should we expect to buy from?”
As I mentioned earlier, if we get confirmation of a dip, I’ll release a detailed article highlighting the specific buy zones and how to approach them.
For now, I still maintain my bullish outlook, with the belief that the market is likely to break through this current zone.
However, I’m being cautious by not committing all my funds until we get a confirmed breakout above $110.5k.
Also, the current zone appears to act as a potential supply level, which is why I’m respecting it and managing my risk carefully—even though I expect it to be broken.
This is the kind of market condition where many traders get confused. That’s why I’ve taken the time to provide clear reasoning and explain how I’m navigating it, all to help benefit each of you.
Conclusion:
I remain bullish based on the weekly close and expect a breakout.
However, I’ve strategically managed my entries to reduce risk until that breakout is confirmed.
If the market shows clear signs of reversal within the $106k–$109k zone, I’ll share an update accordingly.
Every question has been answered — so please take the time to read and understand the full post.❤️📈
💥💥If you found this helpful, like, comment, and share so others can benefit as well.
And for those who often ask for more insights, kindly check my bio for updates.
As requested, I’m providing an updated analysis on $BTC along with a broader market overview.
Although I’ve shared a general analysis previously, this update will place extra emphasis on key points while introducing new confluences based on the latest data.
Please note that this breakdown is a bit detailed, so I encourage you to read it thoroughly. I may not respond to questions that have already been addressed within the article.
MONTHLY VIEW
Previously, I shared my belief that before the market dips below the current low, it’s more likely to break the current high at $109.9k.
I’ve already explained what I mean by the “current low”—on the higher time frame, that level is around $74.3k.
As I mentioned in my previous article, the current level I’m referring to is the one marked with a blue arrow.
In essence, my view is that the market will likely break the current high on the monthly time frame before any move below that low.
This perspective is important because it shapes how you interpret the market. Having a solid general outlook is essential, it helps you clearly identify the overall trend and avoid getting caught up in short-term noise.
Weekly view
What do you see on my screen?
This is the Bitcoin weekly time frame, and as shown, the market is in an uptrend.
Note:
The first step in any analysis is to identify the overall trend, as I mentioned at the beginning. The trend shapes every decision you make—it determines how you interpret price action on the lower time frames.
Currently, Bitcoin is moving upward on both the monthly and weekly charts.
This confirms that the general market direction is bullish—simply put, the market is trending upward.
Now let’s start breaking things down to explore opportunities on the lower time frames.
We’ll ask key questions like:
• If there’s manipulation on the lower time frames, can we still find chances to buy low?
• Should we sell now or take profit and wait for a re-entry?
Everyone’s goal is to make a profit—and to maximize it, you must develop the habit of buying low and selling high. That’s why many traders are uncertain whether to exit now or wait for a deeper dip or another pump.
Let’s dive deeper into the market structure and clarify this.
$BTC
The current weekly candle closed as a strong bullish candle, clearly indicated on the chart by the blue arrow.
This type of close shows that buyers are currently in control of the market. Given my overall bullish outlook—and the likelihood that we’ll break the current high—I believe it’s safer to continue holding Bitcoin rather than risk missing out on a potential breakout from this zone.
Unless we get a clear, valid reason to confirm a reversal, in this case we can stay patient and wait for a healthy pullback on the lower time frames before considering buy-back strategy.
At the moment, there’s no strong reason to sell, especially with the positive sentiment in the market and the current bullish structure.
Note:
This is a general market outlook, derived from the weekly and monthly time frames.
If we are to see any signs of reversal, confirmation will most likely come from the daily or 4-hour charts.
Keep reading as we zoom into the market for more detailed insights.
One key reason this structure remains bullish is because it does not show the characteristics of a valid triple top pattern.
Here’s why:
📝 There’s no strong bearish rejection at the third peak.
📝 The most recent candle, highlighted with the blue arrow, closed strong and bullish—not with a rejection wick or bearish engulfing pattern.
📝 Price has not broken below the neckline (around $91k), which is a critical condition for confirming a triple top reversal.
These points collectively suggest that the market is still favoring the bullish trend rather than signaling a reversal.
DAILY VIEW
Pay close attention to the blue zone marked on my screen.
As long as the weekly trend remains bullish, our overall bias stays bullish.
However, a reversal could be confirmed if the market starts showing signs of rejection within the $106k–$109k zone.
At the moment, I see no valid reason to sell.
I previously bought at $98k, took my first profit at $104k, and I’m now holding the remaining position in Bitcoin without reinvesting the portion I took out.
I’ve also chosen not to take profits at $106k—I’ll simply leave the rest of the position untouched.
I’m not topping up my position right now because I want to stay ready to buy back lower if we get a healthy pullback.
I’ll only consider adding more to my position after we get a clear breakout confirmation above the current resistance zone.
CONFIRMATION
If we get a strong bullish candle closing above the zone on the daily or 4-hour chart, that would serve as a clear confirmation for a fresh entry. At that point, I’ll be looking to top up my Bitcoin position and ride the next wave upward.
For now, the remaining percentage of my position is still in the market—and it’s more than enough to stay in profit comfortably.
A breakout above $110.5k—especially confirmed on the daily or weekly timeframe—will be my key signal.
As for the 4-hour timeframe, it requires more technical confirmation, so I’ll be actively monitoring it and available to guide on that when the time comes.
Personally, I plan to use limit orders just above the breakout high, as I usually do, to secure a quick and efficient entry when the move is confirmed.
Someone asked: “If the market dips, where should we expect to buy from?”
As I mentioned earlier, if we get confirmation of a dip, I’ll release a detailed article highlighting the specific buy zones and how to approach them.
For now, I still maintain my bullish outlook, with the belief that the market is likely to break through this current zone.
However, I’m being cautious by not committing all my funds until we get a confirmed breakout above $110.5k.
Also, the current zone appears to act as a potential supply level, which is why I’m respecting it and managing my risk carefully—even though I expect it to be broken.
This is the kind of market condition where many traders get confused. That’s why I’ve taken the time to provide clear reasoning and explain how I’m navigating it, all to help benefit each of you.
Conclusion:
I remain bullish based on the weekly close and expect a breakout.
However, I’ve strategically managed my entries to reduce risk until that breakout is confirmed.
If the market shows clear signs of reversal within the $106k–$109k zone, I’ll share an update accordingly.
Every question has been answered — so please take the time to read and understand the full post.❤️📈
💥💥If you found this helpful, like, comment, and share so others can benefit as well.
And for those who often ask for more insights, kindly check my bio for updates.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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