To understand Bitcoin Analysis, one must distinguish between two main types:
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First: Fundamental Analysis
Focuses on the factors that affect Bitcoin's intrinsic value, the most important of which are:
1. Supply and Demand:
• Supply is limited to 21 million units.
• Demand is influenced by institutional interest, government adoption, and increased awareness.
2. Important Events:
• Halving: reduces new supply.
• Regulatory news: such as ETF approval or a ban in a specific country.
3. Network Indicators (On-chain):
• Number of active wallets
• On-chain trading volume
• Exchange flows (Is Bitcoin entering exchanges for sale or exiting for storage?)
4. Hashrate:
Its rise reflects the strength of the network and miner confidence.
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Secondly: Technical Analysis
Focuses on price movement and charts to predict future trends. Key tools:
1. Support and Resistance:
• Price levels where bounces or stops frequently occur.
2. Technical Indicators:
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): to identify overbought or oversold conditions.
• MACD: to determine momentum and bullish/bearish crossover.
• Moving Averages: to determine the overall trend (like MA 50 and MA 200).
3. Price Models:
• Like triangles, double tops and bottoms, head and shoulders.
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Current market situation (up to May 2025):
• Bitcoin in the post-halving phase (April 2024).
• The price is moving within a range between $60,000 and $70,000.
• Many indicators suggest accumulation before a new breakout, but the market is cautious due to anticipation of US Federal decisions and new regulations.
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Summary:
Bitcoin analysis requires combining technical and fundamental analysis, along with continuous monitoring of global news.
Success does not come from accurately predicting the price, but from managing risk and discipline.
