Hello! Everyone, I am Xiaobai, and here is my analysis of the trend from May 12 to May 18, 2025.
Weekly Trend Review
Price Performance: This week, Ethereum's price performed strongly, as of May 14, the ETH/USD price was around $2610, up 42% from last week. Since the opening price of $1807 on May 7, ETH has risen nearly 38% in seven days, achieving the best weekly performance since December 2020.
Market Sentiment: The current market sentiment is greedy, with a greed index of 79. Market participants are relatively optimistic about the future trend of Ethereum but should be cautious of profit-taking pressure.
Technical Analysis
Key Support and Resistance:
Support Level: The key support level is at $2430 (where the recent low coincides with the lower Bollinger Band), if it breaks, it may accelerate the decline below $2320.
Resistance Level: Resistance focuses on the $2700-$2750 range, and breaking through this level is expected to trigger bullish momentum toward a $3000 target.
Short-term Volatility: A 'big bearish candle followed by a bullish reversal' pattern has appeared at the 4-hour level, with price volatility breaking upward, indicating continued strong signs in the short term.
Technical Indicators:
MACD: The daily level maintains bullish momentum, but the 1-hour level shows the DIF and DEA near the negative axis, with the histogram narrowing, suggesting that short-term pullback pressure remains.
RSI (14): Located near the neutral zone at 45, showing no clear overbought or oversold signals.
Market Dynamics
Trading Activity: The trading activity and capital flow of Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) on the Binance platform have significantly increased, confirming enhanced trader confidence and the continuation of a bullish market trend.
Institutional Holdings: The London asset management company Abraxas Capital acquired 242,652 ETH over the past week, worth approximately $561 million.
On-chain Data: The actual price of ETH's cumulative addresses has surpassed $1900, which is the average cost line for holders, indicating that most investors have realized profits.
Future Outlook
Short-term Trend: In the short term, ETH prices may oscillate below $2500, with a critical window for bulls and bears. If it can break through the $2700-$2750 resistance range, it is expected to target $3000.
Long-term Trend: In the long term, ETH prices are expected to continue rising, but attention should be paid to a 20-30% pullback risk, which may provide buying opportunities for long-term investors.
Key Event: Ethereum is about to undergo the Pectra upgrade, which may be one of the key factors driving the price upward.
Operational Suggestions
Bullish Strategy: If the price pulls back to around $2540, a light long position can be attempted with a stop-loss set at $2520; if the price breaks above $2600 again, a long position can be pursued.
Bearish Strategy: If the price continues to be under pressure at $2600, a short position can be taken on a rebound.
Please note that the above analysis is based on current market data and technical indicators; actual trends may be influenced by various factors, including the macroeconomic environment, market sentiment, and sudden events. Investors should make cautious decisions and manage risks appropriately.