In terms of the technique, a downward breakout still seems likely before the upcoming reversal. Regarding the macro aspect, I previously noted that I expect a change in the balance of payments starting in May, which will lead to a gradual devaluation of the ruble with targets around 95 by the end of the year.

The import situation is stabilizing, exports are declining, and low oil prices are just beginning to reach the market. The Central Bank is selling less, which is a small but positive sign. Most importantly, given the current deficit, any disruption in negotiations or prolongation of the conflict will only accelerate the devaluation by the end of the year and shift the target above 100. Any agreements on negotiations will only change the situation momentarily, but the long-term target for the exchange rate will not change.