$BTC The uniqueness of this Bitcoin cycle

- Price trend differences: Unlike previous cycles where explosive rises occurred after halving, this round of Bitcoin increased moderately by only 31% after halving, while the previous cycle saw a rise of up to 436% in the same period. Moreover, the price began to surge as early as October and December 2024, followed by consolidation in January 2025 and a correction in late February, which is starkly different from historical patterns.

The method of high-level fluctuation for ordinary people this time

High-level fluctuations mean both opportunities and risks. Investors may gain substantial profits due to price fluctuations but may also incur heavy losses due to sudden price drops.

Dynamic balance rule of positions

Data from 2025 shows that investors who invest in Bitcoin monthly have a volatility rate of returns that is 40% lower than those who invest in a lump sum. It is recommended to limit the Bitcoin allocation to within 5% of total assets and set a 10% stop-loss line. For example, if the holding cost is $85,000, one should decisively reduce holdings if the price falls below $76,500.

Path to cultivate policy sensitivity

Closely monitor the legislative processes such as the US (2025 Bitcoin Act) and the EU MiCA regulations. The case in March 2025 where a major Eastern country required companies to declare their exposure to crypto assets triggered a regional sell-off, proving that the ability to interpret policies directly relates to investment success or failure. It is recommended to browse professional media such as CoinDesk and Decrypt daily to establish a policy early warning system.

On-chain data monitoring system

Track three key indicators through Glassnode: net inflow to exchanges (warning of selling pressure), changes in miner holdings (predicting supply), and MVRV ratio (assessing valuation). During the sharp decline in April 2025, an institutional bottom-fishing signal appeared when the MVRV fell below 0.85, creating a window of opportunity for contrarian investors.