On May 14, QCP released its daily market observation stating that US-Saudi trade is driving a market rebound. The United States and Saudi Arabia signed a landmark $600 billion trade agreement, prompting tariff removals and sparking a new wave of risk appetite.

US CPI came in below expectations, alleviating market concerns about inflation and boosting bets on interest rate cuts. However, the Federal Reserve remains cautious. The market currently anticipates the first rate cut in July, but we believe a more realistic timeframe might be September, with two rate cuts expected in 2025, down from the previous expectation of four.

In this round of rebound, the crypto market has outperformed the stock market, with Bitcoin prices nearing historical highs. Ethereum is struggling to catch up, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate currently at 0.025. We believe that digital assets still have further room to rise, especially in the context of Coinbase officially entering the S&P 500 index on May 19. Historical experience shows that index inclusion usually brings short-term catalytic effects, as passive funds need to adjust their allocations to align more closely with the benchmark index. #CPI数据来袭 $BTC $ETH