#TrumpTariffs

The chances of a recession in the USA in 2025 have fallen from a peak of 66% to 39%

On the Polymarket prediction markets, users are betting that the recession in the USA is now forecasted at 39%.

The turnaround in the trade war with China, the 90-day pause on tariffs, and de-escalation have significantly reduced the chances that the American economy will perform poorly in 2025.

As one trader wrote in the chat - this indicator is comparable to the fear and greed index - when traders are set at 60-70% that a recession is unavoidable - it usually cements the bottom for traditional and crypto markets.