$BTC this concept is always worth talking about, because its simply not intuitive. Many people think that a profitable trading edge requires you to be on the most probable thing to happen. It does not. It is also profitable to place asymmetric bets on less probable things.

Lets take a simple example like this. Shorting the rejection of the highs, and just targeting the range lows.

This trade pays you 4:1 on your risk. You could structure a long trade here, or a short. You might not take the short if it paid you 1:1 (because i you put the odds at 50-50, there is no point). But if you put the odds even at 65%-35% of a breakout instead of a rejection, the SHORT is a profitable endeavor, because structured this way, and taken 100 times, it makes money.

So many people lose sight of the fact that its important to consider "less probable" trades, in light of their asymmetry