In-depth analysis of the BTC and ETH price ratio
As of now, the price of Bitcoin is $103,900, and the price of Ethereum is $2,676. This is a very unique market structure, and from the historical data comparison, we can identify the following key analysis points:
1. Current price ratio of Bitcoin to Ethereum
The current price ratio is:
BTC / ETH = 103,900 / 2,676 ≈ 38.82
This ratio is far higher than most historical periods. Let's look at a few key historical data sets (organized by cycle):
2. Key Analysis Points
1. Bitcoin's dominance is unusually strengthening
• The current BTC/ETH ratio is nearly 39, which is about 3 times the historical peak range.
• This indicates a significant rise in Bitcoin's dominance, while Ethereum's price performance is noticeably lagging.
2. Market risk appetite may decline.
• Bitcoin is seen as the 'digital gold' of the crypto market, while Ethereum tends towards 'technology growth stock' attributes.
• Currently, ETH has not reached a new high along with BTC, which may reflect that investors are more inclined towards conservative assets, avoiding uncertainties associated with smart contracts, DeFi, Layer2 structures.
3. ETF and Institutional Push
• Starting in 2024, the spot BTC ETF will be gradually approved, with massive funds flowing into the Bitcoin market.
• The progress of the Ethereum spot ETF is slow, and its regulatory compliance issues remain unclear.
4. Divergence at the technical level
• The Bitcoin route is very simple, with a clear consensus of 'digital gold'.
• Ethereum has many forks in areas such as L2, DA, and EIP upgrades; although technologically advanced, the complexity and competition have increased fund hesitancy.
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3. Outlook and Possible Trends
If the historical ratio returns:
• If BTC maintains above $100,000, then based on the historical average ratio of 15:1, the reasonable price for ETH should be:
103,900 / 15 ≈ $6,926
• Currently, ETH is clearly undervalued, with significant room for appreciation.
If funds continue to prefer BTC:
• This suggests that the market continues to think in terms of 'de-risking', and Ethereum's potential for catching up may continue to lag, requiring a catalyst.
This is the price and ratio trend chart of Bitcoin and Ethereum from 2016 to present:
Orange solid line: Bitcoin price
Blue solid line: Ethereum price
Green dashed line: BTC/ETH ratio
It can be clearly seen in the chart:
Bitcoin's price has surged significantly in both 2021 and 2025.
Ethereum's price failed to reach a new high after peaking in 2021.
The BTC/ETH ratio shows a continuous upward trend, especially rapidly increasing between 2024 and 2025, indicating that funds are currently more inclined towards Bitcoin.