📊 Chart description:
The chart shows the probability forecasts of a recession in the US over a 12-month horizon from two sources:
GS (Goldman Sachs) — blue line
Bloomberg Consensus — red line
Period: from March 2022 to March 2025.
Probability scale — in percentages (Y-axis), timeline — by months (X-axis).
📌 Key observations:
At peak moments (around March 2023), Bloomberg Consensus rose to about 65%, while GS remained below — around 35-40%.
Since the summer of 2023, both estimates have started to decline, reflecting improved economic expectations.
By March 2025:
Goldman Sachs lowered its recession probability estimate from 45% to 35%.
Bloomberg Consensus is slightly higher, around 38-40%, also showing a decrease in pessimism.
📈 Conclusions:
✅ Goldman Sachs is more optimistic than the market as a whole.
📉 The probability of recession is gradually decreasing, especially since the end of 2023.
🔍 This may indicate the resilience of the US economy and growing confidence from institutional analysts.
🚫 A break below the 50% level indicates a shift from recession expectations to a "soft landing" scenario or complete avoidance of a downturn.
📌 What does this mean for the crypto market?
📈 A decrease in the probability of recession may support risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
🟢 If economic prospects stabilize, an increased interest in speculative instruments such as BTC, ETH, and altcoins becomes more likely.
📊 Crypto investors may interpret the decline in recession risks as a signal to expand positions.
🧠 Conclusion:
Goldman Sachs signals: "fear is fading, the chance of recession is diminishing" — the market may begin to move towards growth, and cryptocurrencies will not be left behind. 💹🚀
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