Below is a quantitative investment strategy framework for cryptocurrency contract longs, combined with the explanation and application of trend analysis tools (EMA, MACD, RSI):
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### I. Core Trend Judgment: EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
1. Parameter Setting
- Short Cycle: EMA7 (sensitive to capture short-term trends)
- Mid Cycle: EMA25 (filters short-term noise)
- Long Cycle: EMA50/EMA200 (confirms long-term trend direction)
2. Trend Judgment Rules
- Bullish Signal: EMA7 > EMA25 > EMA50 (short, medium, and long-term moving averages in bullish alignment)
- Trend Strength: EMA slope upward and price continuously above EMA25 (strong trend continuation)
- Pullback Opportunity: Price rebounds after retracing to EMA25 or EMA50 (buying opportunity on dips)
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### II. Auxiliary Verification Indicators: MACD (Dual Verification of Momentum and Trend)
1. Parameter Optimization
- Default Parameters (12,26,9) are suitable for the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market.
2. Key Signals
- Golden Cross/Death Cross: MACD line crosses above the signal line (golden cross) and is above the zero line (strong bullish signal)
- Histogram Changes: Green histogram bars continuously expand (increasing upward momentum)
- Divergence Warning: Price makes a new high but MACD does not synchronize with a new high (potential reversal risk)
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### III. Overbought and Oversold Filtering: RSI (Momentum Correction Warning)
1. Parameter Adjustment
- Cycle 14 (balances sensitivity and noise)
- Overbought Threshold: 70; Oversold Threshold: 30 (adapted for the high volatility of the crypto market)
2. Application Logic
- Trend Following: In an EMA bullish trend, RSI breaks above 50 and holds (trend-following signal)
- Pullback Opportunity: RSI rebounds after falling to the 40-50 range (trend continuation long entry opportunity)
- Divergence Warning: Price makes a new high but RSI shows a top divergence (suggests reducing position or stop-loss)
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### IV. Integration of Long Strategies (Example)
#### 1. Trend Confirmation Phase
- Necessary Condition: EMA7 > EMA25 > EMA50, and price is above EMA25
- Auxiliary Condition: MACD histogram is green and expanding upwards, RSI > 50
#### 2. Entry Signal
- Aggressive: Price rebounds after retracing to EMA25 or EMA50, while RSI rises from 50
- Conservative: MACD golden cross and above the zero line, RSI not overbought (<70)
#### 3. Stop-Loss Setting
- Fixed Stop-Loss: 2-3% below entry price (high leverage requires narrowing range)
- Dynamic Stop-Loss: EMA25 or previous low support level (trailing trend upward)
#### 4. Profit-Taking Strategy
- Partial Profit-Taking:
1. First Target: Previous high resistance level (reduce position in conjunction with RSI oversold zone)
2. Second Target: Move stop-loss to EMA7 when the trend continues
- Trend Termination Signal: EMA7 crosses below EMA25 or MACD death cross
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### V. Key Points of Risk Management
1. Leverage Control: Cryptocurrency contract leverage ≤ 10x (avoid extreme volatility liquidation)
2. Position Allocation: Risk per trade ≤ 2% of total capital
3. Time Frame: Prioritize 1-hour/4-hour charts (reduce noise interference)
4. Market Environment: Avoid opening positions before or after major policy announcements (e.g., Federal Reserve decisions, exchange events)
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### VI. Strategy Optimization Direction
1. Multi-Timeframe Resonance: When the daily trend is upward, look for entry points on the hourly chart
2. Volume-Price Coordination: Combine volume increase to validate the effectiveness of the breakout
3. On-chain Data: Monitor inflow/outflow of funds on exchanges (e.g., Glassnode data)
4. Volatility Filtering: Pause trading when ATR indicator > 2% (avoid extreme market conditions)
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Note: The cryptocurrency market is characterized by high volatility, 24-hour trading, and sensitivity to news events. It is recommended to validate strategy effectiveness through historical data backtesting (e.g., BTC/ETH trends from 2020-2023) and continuously track market structure changes to adjust parameters.
