#CryptoCPIWatch

USA: Inflation is Cooling or Holding Pressure

Key Points:

• CPI is expected to decrease to 2.9% (annual rate) in February from 3.0% in January, and core CPI is expected to drop to 3.2% from 3.3%.

• The data may influence the Fed's decision on lowering rates: weaker inflation increases the likelihood of a cut as early as June–July, while stronger inflation will force the Fed to remain hawkish.

• Yearly expectations: markets have already priced in a rate cut of 85 bps.

• If CPI is lower than forecast → the dollar weakens, cryptocurrencies and stocks rise.

• If CPI is higher → the dollar strengthens, pressure on risk assets.

Crypto Market:

• BTC – $82,185 (+0.57%), ETH – $1,889 (-1.75%), XRP and DOGE – rising, SOL and ADA – slight decline.

• There has been an outflow of investments in crypto funds for the 4th consecutive week (–$876 million).

• Markets are sensitive to inflation: lower inflation supports asset prices, higher inflation poses a risk of decline.

Additional Risks:

• Trump's trade policy (tariffs) may raise inflation again through imports and supply chains.

Conclusion:

The market is awaiting signals from CPI. Its results could trigger decisions from the Fed, movement of the dollar, and changes in cryptocurrency rates. Volatility is increasing.