📊 CPI data for April 2025
Overall CPI: Increased by 0.2% compared to last month, 2.3% year-on-year — lower than the expected 2.4%.
Core CPI (excluding food and energy): Increased by 0.3% last month, 2.8% year-on-year — continuing the downward trend.
=> Clear signals that inflation pressure is easing, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may lower interest rates in the coming months.
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📈 How does Bitcoin react?
Before the CPI announcement: BTC adjusted slightly, dropping to the $102,400 range due to defensive sentiment and profit-taking.
Immediately after the announcement: BTC surged to $103,700, but has not escaped the old range.
Market sentiment: Cautious, waiting for clearer signals from the Fed or other macro factors.
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🔮 Short-term outlook
• US-China trade agreement: If progress is positive, investment flows may shift towards risky assets like crypto.
• Spot Bitcoin ETF: Cash flow remains slightly negative, but signs of a slowdown in outflows could open up a new bullish cycle.
• Monetary policy: All eyes are on the upcoming Fed meeting. If dovish signals (easing) are given, BTC could break out of the $105K range.
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Conclusion: Low CPI is a catalyst, but not enough ‘fire’ to ignite bullish momentum. However, with many positive factors forming, analysts believe Bitcoin is just consolidating – before a breakout.
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Do you think BTC will break its peak next month or continue to move sideways?