🔍 My Crypto CPI Watch – May 13, 2025
Big macro day ahead 👀
At 15:30 UTC, the U.S. CPI report drops — and it’s a major catalyst for the market.
Forecast is 2.4% YoY, same as last month. Here’s how I’m thinking through the scenarios:
🔴 CPI above 2.4%
Not great for the markets short term. Last month came in soft, so any upside surprise could shake things up.
Higher inflation = delayed rate cuts = pressure on risk assets like BTC & ETH.
🟠 CPI comes in at 2.4% (expected)
Could still be a green light for the market. Bullish momentum has been building, and a neutral print may support it.
🟢 CPI below 2.4%
This is the scenario I’m watching for. Lower inflation could trigger risk-on flows and fuel the next leg for Bitcoin and altcoins. Rate cut expectations would get a serious boost.
⚠️ Volatility likely around the drop — no rush to position early. Watching price action after the release before making any moves.
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