1. Next of Trend (Core Technical Analysis)
Chart Observations:
Price: $103,837.65
Currently pushing resistance zone around 104,145.
Ascending channel with price bouncing between support (dashed line) and resistance (upper blue trend line).
RSI: 59.30 – Near neutral but slightly bullish.
24h High/Low: 104,629 / 100,718 – recent volatility noted.
Technical Analysis Summary:
Price is rebounding from mid-channel support (102,396) and approaching resistance.
If it breaks above 104,145 cleanly, it can target 105,819 (channel top).
Trend is bullish short-term, but near resistance, so retracement risk exists.
> neext move: Likely bullish continuation toward 105,800, but expect minor consolidation at 104,100–104,600.
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2. SMC & Psychological Factors
Smart Money Concepts (SMC):
Liquidity sweep below 102,396 likely trapped shorts – possible smart money accumulation zone.
Break of structure (BOS): Likely forming as price breaches recent highs.
Imbalance zone between 102,396 – 104,145 – price may return to fill this if no strong breakout occurs.
Psychological Factors:
Traders may perceive 104K as psychological resistance due to round number proximity.
Fear of missing out (FOMO) could trigger fast buying if 104,600–105,800 breaks.
Entry Ideas:
Aggressive Long Entry: On break and close above 104,600, targeting 105,800.
Long Entry: Retest of 102,400–102,600 zone (former resistance, now support).
Short Entry (Speculative): If price rejects hard at 104,100–104,600, target 102,800.
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3. Suggested Trade Side
> Suggested Side: LONG
Justification:
Higher lows.
Price inside an ascending channel.
RSI rising, not yet overbought.
Volume increasing near breakout zone.
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4. Swing Scenario of the Market
Swing Structure Overview:
Swing Low: Around 98,723
Swing High: Around 105,819
Price recently made a swing pullback to 102,396, which held as a support.
Now moving up toward previous swing high, indicating bullish continuation.
Scenario Possibilities:
Bullish Swing Continuation: If current structure breaks above 104,600, next high is 105,800+.
Bearish Swing Failure: If rejection occurs below 104,000, short-term pullback to 102,800 or 100,700 possible.
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5. Signal Complexity Explained
Why This Signal Is Complex:
Price is at key resistance: Both a breakout and rejection are possible.
The RSI is mid-range, so neither overbought nor oversold.
Volume Profile shows increased trading near this level – indicates decision point.
Wick rejections in the past around 104–105K region mean bulls need strong momentum.
Summary:
Signal = Medium Complexity
Requires confirmation via volume surge, RSI breakout above 60–65, or candle close above 104,600.
Multiple trader sentiments (FOMO vs. profit-taking) create a mixed but leaning bullish scenario.