1. First, a cold splash of water: 99% of retail investors die from the 'fatal illusion' on the 10th day of going all-in on a certain coin with a capital of 500,000.
In the first 3 days, it dropped 4% and resisted; on the 4th day, it crashed 20% losing 100,000; on the 9th day, it collapsed again by 30%, halving the capital.
Eventually, during the emotional collapse and cutting losses, the account only had 180,000 left — this is not an isolated case, but the real script for 80% of beginners.
The truth: There is no 'guaranteed profit' in the crypto world, only a 'probability game under strict risk control.' As a professional trader for 6 years, I have summarized 'survival rules' that are more important than techniques. 2. The 3 core formulas for survival (90% of people lose at the first step) ❶ Position survival line: Always leave 50% of your capital.
Wrong demonstration: Going all-in = handing your neck to the market maker. During the 2024 LUNA crash, those fully invested lost an average of 87%, while those with half positions recovered 30% by averaging down.
Correct operation: Build a position of no more than 50%, sell 40% to recover when it doubles, and keep 10% as a base position to follow the market maker (e.g., with a capital of 500,000, when it rises to 1,000,000, cash out 200,000, profit games without pressure).
❷ Trend scythe technique: Only chase the 'rising vehicles.'
Deadly misconception: Spending 80% of your energy guessing the bottom (those who tried to bottom BTC in 2022 were stuck on average at 18,000 U for 6 months).
Truth of high profits: Intervening in coins showing 'bullish engulfing + volume breakout' on the 30-minute candlestick has a success rate 4 times higher than bottom fishing (before the 2023 ETH Shanghai upgrade, chasing after rising funds had an average return of 120%).
❸ Anti-human nature switch: After a big loss / big gain, must stay in cash for 3 days.
Data evidence: Blindly opening positions after 3 consecutive profitable trades increases the probability of losses to 75%; immediately averaging down after a 20% loss leads to a secondary loss expansion rate of 60%.
My discipline: Force myself to record (mental diary) after each trade, and directly pull the plug during emotional fluctuations.
3. 8 trading rules ingrained in DNA (read 3 times every day before the market opens).
30-minute resonance law: Short-term traders must watch the 30-minute candlestick + the market's MACD golden cross, do not bottom fish on single-pin tests, and chase after bullish engulfing breakouts.
Trends crush everything: When the weekly EMA60 is down, looking at it again is a mistake; when the weekly EMA60 is up, a 30% pullback is a golden opportunity.
Hot spots are cash: Do not touch cryptocurrencies that are not in the top 20 trending, and for new coins with a single-day increase of over 40%, only chase the second bullish candle (avoid getting trapped by market makers).
Trading plan rules: All entries must be pre-written with 'stop loss price (-5%) + target price (+30%)', executed automatically at the set point, without watching the market or getting entangled.
Independent judgment principle: Trust only 30% of what big influencers say, filter 80% of group chat messages, buy in batches when others panic, and sell in batches when others celebrate.
Direction is more important than the coin: In a bull market, choose BTC/ETH (earning beta returns while lying down), in a bear market, choose leading cross-chain narratives (capture alpha excess), and never bet against the cycle.
Chasing highs, not bottom fishing: decisively chase after a 2% breakout of previous highs, add positions on a pullback to previous high support, and set a stop loss 3% below the previous high — let the market help you validate right or wrong.
Layered fund management: 50% in spot to resist decline, 30% in contracts to catch trends (leverage ≤ 5 times), 20% in cash for black swans, and never touch 'zero value coins' at any time.
4. The ultimate advice for newcomers: earning small money relies on technique, while earning big money relies on 'counter-intuition.'
Do not believe in 'getting rich overnight': I have seen people with a capital of 3 million using 100x leverage to earn 120 million, with 99% losing it all in the next crash.
The real logic of guaranteed profit: An annualized 30% is harder than a monthly 100%. After 6 years of compounding, a capital of 500,000 can grow to 7 million.
Remember: Those who survive to the next bull market in the crypto world are not those who earned the most, but those who 'lost the least.'
Conclusion: In the end, trading is all about tugging at one's own nature.
These 8 rules cost me 3 million in real money — do not deify techniques, do not be superstitious about trends, only believe that 'rules are more reliable than feelings.' If you can do 'never move 50% of your position, set buy and sell based on 30-minute candlesticks, and must stay in cash when emotional,' congratulations, you have surpassed 90% of the market cannon fodder. Remember: There is no holy grail in the crypto world; only 'survivors who strictly adhere to discipline can laugh until the end.'