The market was impacted by tariffs, which pushed up prices and liquidated short positions while also attracting a large number of long positions. Subsequently, the good news was realized, leading to a massive outflow of spot chips and a rapid market decline, liquidating short positions and attracting long positions.
Currently, it seems that this wave of adjustment will not be too large, with Bitcoin likely holding above 100,000 and Ethereum above 2400.
I suggest everyone take a closer look at the spot ETF data. The buyers of ETFs are highly overlapping with those in the US stock market. Although they may also chase highs and cut losses, it can be seen that most investors are experiencing FOMO sentiment in the current cryptocurrency market.
ETH has touched a small support level and rebounded again, indicating that the upward momentum of longs is still strong. Next, we will focus on whether it can break and hold above 2500 US dollars. Once it stabilizes, the next target may continue to break through the short-term new high.
Let's talk about rate cuts:
1. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates in September 2025.
2. JPMorgan predicts it could be in June or July.
First of all, June is unlikely, as the market predicts the probability of a rate cut is only about 20%, and even if there is a rate cut, it would be at most 25 basis points.
I believe the probability of a rate cut in September is the highest. I also checked the Federal Reserve's meeting schedule, and August is a window period with no meetings, which is quite interesting.
Whether it is a rate cut in July or September, Bitcoin's price will react in advance.
The current rise partly reflects expectations for a rate cut. So whether it is in July or September, October will be a key node.
Naturally, the market will reach the bottom after the first rate cut in the second phase, and then it will gradually enter a new market as rate cuts slowly unfold.
Tonight, focus on the release of the US April CPI data!
The direction of this data directly relates to the trend of the financial market. If the data is good, the probability of interest rate hikes will likely rise significantly; conversely, expectations for rate hikes will decrease.
Currently, there is much speculation in the market about whether there will be adjustments to the policies in July, and this April CPI data is undoubtedly a key barometer.
Brothers, this chart is clear at a glance. Anyone holding Danzi should pay attention; if the situation seems off, we can retreat at any time. Simply put, the expected value is 2.4%, and the previous value was also 2.4%. A value greater than 2.4% is bearish, and vice versa.
Six steps to hold the next hundred-fold coin:
1. Identify tracks with development potential.
The current AI track combined with the gaming sector, the Bitcoin ecosystem, and meme coins is the strongest narrative trend.
2. Find potential projects within the track.
Identify critical positions, grasp key technologies, and assess team background and qualifications.
3. Token economic model.
Inflation rate should not be too high, distribution to teams and investors should not be excessive, and tokens should have empowerment and value acquisition.
4. Filter out projects with too high market capitalization.
The higher the market cap, the harder it is to rise; projects with lower market caps tend to have greater upward explosive potential.
5. Diversify investments to increase chances of hitting.
There is no 100% method to succeed; do not put all your eggs in one basket.
6. The more difficult aspect of buying a hundred-fold coin: patience, holding on, and long-term holding.
$FROGGER——3M completed.
Yesterday, Brother Dao Le mentioned this meme coin was at $0.0015, and it is now at $0.1126, already doubled. Those who got in should have made a profit.
The number of addresses holding coins has exceeded 1,100.
Today I saw the Pepe whale @DMTLAND_ and the lowercase neiro OG @ChinaWhaleETH joined the FROGGGER, and the frog has become the second largest memecoin in V God’s wallet.
I hope the frog exceeds the value of the hippo's holdings in 4X.
