Current state of the crypto market: 1. Tariffs have returned to normal, meaning that the impact of this event on the market has greatly diminished; 2. Correspondingly, the factors influencing the market trend are, from a macro perspective, inflation and economic impact have increased in weight; 3. From a micro perspective, it depends on whether the crypto space has new narratives or new explosive points; stripping away emotions, these are all clear indicators presented to us.
Bitcoin did not follow the rise of the US stock market last night but instead chose a short-term retracement, showing a trend independent of the US stock market. Currently, the 4-hour trend has not changed. After the short-term retracement adjustment, the direction is still upward. As it stands, this adjustment will not be too large, and the probability of Bitcoin holding above $100,000 and Ethereum holding above $2,400 is quite high.
This is a cycle without bulls and bears—falling for a few months, then rising, which will be the norm for the future market.
We are in a super cycle of Bitcoin, and the final price of BTC should exceed $200,000, or even $500,000!
But this wave around $110,000 is the peak of this stage; my personal view remains unchanged!
First, the easing of tariffs between China and the United States from 10 to 11 brings positive sentiment, which has driving power. When the good news lands, the market will slowly reprice.
However, I currently do not see any main force that can leverage to break through $120,000 or even the $150,000 that everyone is talking about.
Let's talk about interest rate cuts:
1. The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in September 2025.
2. JPMorgan predicts it will be in June or July.
First of all, June is highly unlikely; the market predicts the probability of interest rate cuts is only over 20%, and even if there are cuts, at most once it would be 25 basis points.
Old Chen mentioned this morning that the probability of interest rate cuts in July has decreased.
Therefore, I believe the probability of an interest rate cut in September is the highest. I also looked at the Federal Reserve's meeting schedule; August is a window period for meetings, which is quite interesting.
Whether it's July or September, Bitcoin's price will react in advance.
The current rise is partly due to expectations of interest rate cuts. So no matter if it’s in July or September, October is a critical node.
The market will naturally reach the bottom after the first phase of interest rate cuts takes place, and then slowly enter a new market with gradual interest rate cuts.
$FROGGER—3M completed.
Yesterday, I mentioned this meme coin on BN, at that time it was 1.1 million, now it's 2.73 million. This morning's article also mentioned that it has increased 2.45 times. Those who got in should have profited.
Currently, the number of wallet addresses holding coins has exceeded 1,100.
Today, I saw that the pepe whale @DMTLAND_ and lowercase neiro OG @ChinaWhaleETH have joined FROGGGER. The frog has become the second largest memecoin in Vitalik's wallet.
I hope the frog surpasses the hippo's holding value in 4X.
Accompanied by the pullback of altcoins, everyone should focus on quality leading meme and AI projects. These two tracks are the main melody of this round of bull market; without a new narrative emerging, the market has no other choice.
Historically, altcoins also heat up slowly at the beginning of a bull market. After BTC breaks the price ceiling, ETH will lead the charge, Bitcoin will hit new highs, and the bull market for altcoins will only just begin.
The three elements of a successful meme: unique narrative + soul figure + buying power!
Easily spreadable unique narratives and stories can be widely disseminated without distortion!
DOGE: A widely spread image.
People: xian method.
pepe: the ancestor of memes.
SHIB: 50% sent to Vitalik's wallet.
BOME: Donation issuance.
SLERF: Burn pool.
Every successful meme cannot be separated from its soul figure, which determines the upper limit that the project can reach. With a unique narrative and a soul figure, there is already a group of loyal fans, stable buying power, and a solid chip structure.
For those who missed out and whose coins haven't risen, don't rush.
1. The sector rotation market will definitely continue, so don't worry.
2. If Bitcoin doesn't hit new highs, major altcoin market makers won't dare to act rashly; only a few coins are rising, while most fundamentals are flat.
3. Do not rush to switch to other coins just because you see others rising (unless the risk-reward ratio is better).
In the future, as soon as you sell, it will start to rise; as soon as you chase the rise, it will start to pull back. Repeatedly, you will explode your mentality.
Manage your positions well and welcome the bull market together; I am with you. For details, check the homepage.
