This is a cycle without bulls or bears.
After a few months of decline, a wave of increase is the future market norm.
We are in a super cycle of Bitcoin, and the final price of BTC should exceed $200,000, even $500,000! However, this wave around $110,000 is the phase peak, and my personal view remains unchanged!
Firstly, from $100,000 to $110,000, it is favorable due to the easing of tariffs between China and the United States, which has emotional driving power. Once the favorable conditions are established, the market will gradually reprice. However, I currently do not see any major forces that can leverage a breakthrough to $120,000 or even the $150,000 that everyone talks about.
Let's talk about interest rate cuts:
1. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to possibly start cutting interest rates in September 2025.
2. JPMorgan predicts it will be in June or July.
Firstly, June is unlikely, as the market predicts only a little over 20% probability of a rate cut, and even if there is a cut, it will be at most 25 basis points.
I believe the probability of a rate cut in September is the highest. I also looked at the Federal Reserve's meeting schedule; August is a period without meetings, which is quite interesting.
Whether the rate cut is in July or September, Bitcoin's price will react in advance. The current rise is partly due to the expectations of a rate cut.
Therefore, regardless of whether it’s a rate cut in July or September, October is a crucial point.
The market will naturally reach the bottom after the first rate cut in the second phase, and then gradually open up a new market as the rate cuts slowly enter.
The above content is just my personal opinion.
The road is long and arduous. While following Bitcoin's journey, I hope everyone does not fall behind; just do it!
