Today is Tuesday, and the overall crypto market, as mentioned yesterday, faces a correction if Bitcoin cannot stabilize above $105,000. The BTC price has fallen from a high of $105,000 to around $102,376, a drop of about 3%. This correction reflects the classic pattern of 'buy the rumor, sell the news.'
Correction background: Tariff truce and adjustment of market sentiment.
The conclusion of the 90-day tariff truce agreement between China and the United States marks a temporary relief in the global economic tension. The U.S. will reduce tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, and China will lower tariffs on the U.S. from 125% to 10%. This news quickly ignited enthusiasm in global stock markets, with S&P 500 futures rising by 2.5%, Nasdaq futures soaring by 3.1%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increasing by over 3%. Gold prices fell by 2.5%, indicating a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to risk assets. As a barometer of the crypto market, Bitcoin initially reacted strongly, briefly reaching $105,800, close to its historical high of $109,588. However, due to profit-taking pressure, Bitcoin's price fell to a low of $100,600 and is currently back at $102,539, highlighting the market's rapid digestion of the good news.
While the tariff suspension has alleviated inflationary pressures and improved global liquidity, short-term benefits include risk assets such as Bitcoin. However, it is essential to understand that if a broader agreement is not reached after the 90-day truce period, market volatility may return. This short-term correction is also a natural adjustment of market sentiment, providing a new opportunity to purchase potential assets.
Regarding altcoins, I have already mentioned that this cycle is different from previous bull market cycles. 'The four-year cycle has effectively become invalid.' The traditional rotation model after halving has been overwhelmed by the influx of spot ETFs and the unprecedented 'headline-driven market' (when the 'most popular' person on Earth launches a meme coin on Solana, the crypto market has quietly changed).
Many 'potential' assets are no longer worth holding. Whenever altcoins show a rally, there are usually people cashing out completely. The indiscriminate 'altcoin frenzy' seen during previous market peaks may not return. The current crypto market liquidity has divided into two parts: one side is Bitcoin ETFs, and the other is high-speed meme coin platforms like Pump.Fun. Tokens in between must now defend their rights with 'real protocol income, not just governance'—if they cannot do this, most of these tokens will go to zero.
Returning to today's topic, let's continue discussing Solana. The New York conference for Solana is set to take place next week, and I am very much looking forward to it. Solana's DeFi ecosystem has shown remarkable vitality this year, and the data further supports its potential. According to DeFiLlama, Solana's total value locked (TVL) surged by over 50% in the past 30 days, jumping from around $6 billion to $9.44 billion, reaching its highest level since February. The TVL of JitoSOL increased by 41% to $3.15 billion; the Kamino protocol grew by 33%, with a TVL of $2.6 billion, nearing its historical high. The Kamino Reserve 3 wallet shows that meme coin deposits (such as DogWifHat over $10 million, BONK, and POPCAT) have driven the lending boom, reflecting the diversity and vitality of the Solana ecosystem.
Meanwhile, Solana's decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume hit a new high of $35.6 billion, growing by 58%. The daily trading fees of the Jupiter aggregator and Pump.fun platform reached $2.86 million and $2.67 million, respectively. Over the past 12 months, the Solana ecosystem generated $2.9 billion in trading fees, leading other major blockchains by $1 billion, highlighting its dominance in fee generation.
On other fronts, the daily active addresses on the Solana network have surpassed 5.1 million, reaching a new high since mid-February, indicating a surge in user participation (Cryptorank). Its average throughput remains stable at 1190 TPS, with the SOL-USD market share rising from 27% to 38%, reflecting strong demand for native assets. Although the recent unlocking of $32 million in assets by FTX and Alameda may bring short-term pressure, the high active addresses and trading volume suggest an upward price trend.
In terms of price, SOL has recently attempted several times to break through the key resistance level of $180. With the market correction, the SOL price has also retreated, currently standing at $171.27, close to the 30-day high, demonstrating high resilience with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $7.4 billion. Although the supply of stablecoins on the Solana chain has decreased from $12 billion to $11.71 billion, with a net outflow of $8.3 million in the past 30 days, the 35% increase in SOL price (from $130 to $170) and the meme coin frenzy effectively offset the impact of the outflow.
Bullish outlook for Bitcoin and Solana.
Bitcoin could soar to historical highs due to institutional capital inflows and the 'digital gold' narrative. Sovereign wealth funds, pensions, and corporations are 'hoarding Bitcoin like gold'. Its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins becomes more attractive amidst high global uncertainty. If the U.S. government promotes a strategic Bitcoin reserve or relaxes regulatory policies, Bitcoin could enter a significant upward channel. Bitcoin's strong performance will instill confidence in the entire crypto market, creating a favorable environment for Solana's rise.
For Solana, its blockchain technology advantages, including thousands of transactions per second and extremely low transaction costs, enable it to perform excellently in high-traffic scenarios. For example, during the Trump meme coin frenzy, the Solana network 'remained unaffected and ran smoothly', passing a perfect stress test. In addition, Solana's high exposure in cultural events (such as Coachella and Lollapalooza) enhances its brand appeal. The listing of Solana's spot ETF in Canada and the steady progress of the application in the U.S. will bring significant institutional funding to Solana. The combination of technical fundamentals and ETF flow will drive Solana's price to achieve a significant breakthrough, positioning it as a leader in the crypto market by 2025.
The global liquidity cycle has not yet peaked, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates. These macro factors provide a favorable environment for Solana.
Price prediction: Solana's upward channel.
Solana's current price is $171.27. If SOL breaks through $180, it could quickly reach $200 and may even challenge $400 in the long term. This prediction is supported by multiple data points: daily active addresses exceeding 5.1 million, a 58% increase in DEX trading volume, and the positive correlation with global liquidity. Technical indicators show that Solana's daily chart is about to break out, and the surge in weekly active addresses and trading volume indicates an upward price trend. Although the unlocking of $32 million in assets by FTX and Alameda may bring short-term pressure, the increase in user participation and network activity provides solid support for Solana's long-term growth.
Market synergy: Bitcoin's support.
Bitcoin's strong performance provides a favorable backdrop for Solana's rise. Its increase will boost the confidence of the entire crypto market, creating more space for Solana's growth.
Finally.
Today's correction seems to be a short-term adjustment and is an excellent opportunity for everyone to examine potential projects. Solana, with its DeFi TVL surging by 50%, technical leadership, cultural appeal, and institutional funding support, has already become a leader in the crypto market. Everyone still needs to closely monitor technological advancements in crypto, global liquidity trends, and regulatory changes to seize market opportunities.
I share the latest developments in the crypto market with everyone every day. Your likes and follows are my motivation!