Today's major events in the crypto market:
1. The US April CPI year-on-year and month-on-month data will be released today at 20:30.
2. The TRUMP dinner leaderboard will close today at 1:30 AM, locking in the top 220 dinner qualifications. Trump himself will attend the dinner on May 22.
3. Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on May 13 at 2:00, worth about 55.87 million USD, accounting for 1.82% of the circulating supply.
After the temporary agreement on US-China tariffs, the probability of a rate cut in July has dropped again...
Currently only 38.5%... and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in July has reached 57.4%... This probability distribution should change again after today's CPI announcement.
Since we have to wait until September after the July FOMC, if there is no interest rate cut in July, the earliest time for a rate cut will be directly postponed to September...
We are back on the path of two interest rate cuts within the year. Although a deal was reached yesterday between China and the US, which is positive, the rate cuts have also been prolonged. How much new expectation and positive expectation is left? We can only wait and see. You say it will dive deep soon, but it’s not likely, after all, there’s no negative news.
Why did US-China tariffs lead to US stocks rising while $BTC fell? Can $BTC continue to rise?
Influenced by tariffs, it shot up to clear shorts while also attracting many longs to enter; then, as the positive effects were realized, a large amount of spot chips fled, causing the market to drop quickly. It cleared shorts and attracted longs.
The price has fallen back, and there’s nothing negative about it; it’s also unlikely to continue falling. Look for support positions to stabilize.
From the combination of URPD data and K-line, it is temporarily at the support of 100,700 (below is 99,000).
2. The trade war is just a lonely fight; the properties of gold and recession expectations have been delayed. So I sold BTC.
3. There are still no expectations for interest rate cuts, after all, it won't come that fast. So there are still no ongoing positive speculation expectations.
4. Today's monthly inflation CPI data will be released. It’s reasonable for capital to temporarily avoid risk. We wait for the CPI data release and see if it will be positive.
$BTC has maintained high-level fluctuation after a recent price surge, yesterday touching the 105800 line and falling back. After a slight drop to 100700 in the early morning, it rebounded slightly and is currently operating around 103100.
Will it continue to fall?
In the short term, the liquidity of the longs below has not yet reached the liquidation threshold, meaning the magnetic pull is not strong enough; therefore, the probability of a rebound and fluctuation is relatively high.
Both upward and downward liquidity are insufficient, focusing on the pressure level near 105000. If the rebound is obstructed, consider laying out short positions; the lower support is first seen in the 100000-101000 range. If it breaks, we need to look further down.
Operational advice: For Bitcoin: Short around 103500, target 101000-100000.
Is there still momentum for further increases?
Let’s first look at the US April CPI data released tonight at 20:30. In any case, there is currently no major negative news.
The previous March CPI recorded 2.4% (below the expected 2.5%). BTC has the possibility of a short-term adjustment. If inflation rises, then the possibility of a rate cut in June is low. Bitcoin is expected to wash out to the 90,000 range and attack again, so pay attention to the short-term pullback risk.
$ETH is influenced by the resolution of tariffs, and with Trump reissuing tokens, it quickly retraced after breaking through 2600, currently fluctuating around 2500.
$SOL closely follows the big brother and second brother, breaking through 180 and quickly retracing, with a minimum drop below 170. It seems further news is needed for stimulation; if it falls, the first support level to watch is around 155, and the pullback is all for a better and stronger rebound.
Regarding altcoins:
Currently, most altcoins have formed a bottom structure and have started a right-side market.
PayFi themes are active, with capital favoring highly liquid small-cap sectors.
Today's top five coins by increase
$MUXYAI (▲2000%)
$DEGEN (▲111%)
$SHARK CAT (▲64.4%)
$KEYCAT (▲51.2%)
$GODS (▲45%)
Small market cap narrative-driven meme coins and GameFi projects continue to attract capital.
This wave of market momentum is fierce, and those who missed the opportunity seem to feel much better after a slight adjustment. The emotional aspect has not peaked yet.
Recently, the SOL chain launched the Bonk platform, challenging Pump. In fact, Pump purely belongs to vampires; all the profits earned are dumped back into SOL, needing a revolution. There are new platforms that are great, and group friends are making money again @mingyue00001 @shirleyusy. I see Ikun has started to trade too; the concept of meme from our country isn't easy.
These token issuance platforms remind me of the NFT platforms from the last cycle. In the end, they were revolutionized by Blur.
The BSc chain is still played by a small number of people, and discussions around me have decreased.
Secondary market sequence: meme and strong庄币, Ethereum also had a little excitement with its younger brothers; a few days ago, the second layer saw ARB on the rise list.
For the main narrative of the market, it must exist; relying purely on memes without a narrative will not last. Let’s see how it performs this week, most coins have reached resistance levels.
Which coin will hit the next new high?
The secondary market is very fragmented now; 99% of altcoins on Binance are very garbage, lacking narrative and consensus. The old stories have been told for years and are still not finished. Now the secondary market has come to the time of 'value investing'; only those coins with truly good fundamentals, whether meme or application coins, have the chance to continue with this bull market. SOL and SUI are very good examples.
From this perspective, BNB will be the next public chain to reach a new high quickly.
Additionally, DOGE (Dogecoin), under the support of this round of meme coin market, can clearly feel the influx of huge capital. I currently firmly believe that Dogecoin is the next coin that can reach a new high, very likely to hit 1 USD.
Small funds can pay attention to: $FROGGER
Core logic: Pull another 5X to become the top holding coin of V God.
The top of the list is V God; the project party gave him 15% of the tokens, directly pushing the market cap up. Then V God will notice, and next comes the selling and dumping, the out-of-circle routine; V God has always had huge traffic for dumping. Last year, the same routine with $NEIRO $MOODENG (ETH) $GUA, under community support, started at a minimum of 10M.
ETH market is warming up, and the frog theme has always been an IP favored by Ethereum players. There is community support, and $COCORO (a new meme on ETH recently surpassing 10M in value) has top smart money in it.
A final reminder: Do not hold onto altcoins long-term anymore; take profits whenever possible, stop losses in time, and check the homepage.
