After the China-US tariff agreement, US stocks rose while $BTC fell, mainly due to the following reasons and subsequent trend analysis:

Reasons for the decline

1. Positive expectations materialized: The China-US tariff agreement was reached, weakening the market's previous speculation logic on "safe-haven assets," leading to profit-taking (short-term support reference 100700, strong support 99000).

2. Safe-haven attributes weakened: The easing of trade frictions reduced expectations of economic recession, leading to a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets like gold and BTC.

3. Rate cut expectations not yet realized: The Federal Reserve currently shows no signs of changing its monetary policy, lacking sustained positive speculation momentum.

4. Risk aversion before data release: The market is waiting for the monthly CPI data, with some funds temporarily leaving risk assets to observe.

Subsequent upward momentum analysis

• Short-term data guidance: If tonight's CPI data is below expectations, it may boost market risk appetite, potentially benefiting BTC; conversely, be cautious of volatility.

• Possibility of fund rotation: If the US stock market's phase of gains ends, some funds may flow back to the crypto market (BTC has both risk and safe-haven attributes).

• No significant bearish support: The current market lacks a continuous downward logic, likely maintaining range-bound fluctuations, with attention needed on the effectiveness of the 100700 support.

Conclusion: Short-term trends are significantly influenced by data and fund flows, and whether it can surge in the medium to long term depends on macro policies (such as rate cuts) and changes in market sentiment, currently focusing on a fluctuation strategy.