In May 2025, significant signs of easing appeared in the China-U.S. trade war. Here are the key information整理:

1. Latest Progress

‌Significant Tariff Reductions‌

China will reduce tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%, and the United States will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%‌1.

Both sides have canceled 91% of existing tariffs and have postponed tariffs on 24% of goods for 90 days, with a total reduction exceeding 100%‌2. This move is seen as the "most substantial easing" since the trade war began‌2.

‌Market Response‌

Global stock markets surged in response: The Dow Jones rose by 2.5%, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index soared by 5%, and major European stock indices increased by over 3%‌3.

Gold prices dropped sharply due to a cooling of risk aversion‌45.

2. In-depth Impact Analysis

‌Economic Spillover Effects‌

The reduction in tariffs will promote bilateral trade and stimulate the recovery of global supply chains, particularly benefiting exporters and consumers‌12.

However, China's GDP growth rate is still expected to slow, possibly dropping to 4.5% in 2025‌6.

‌Future Uncertainties‌

Deep-seated contradictions such as industrial policy and technological competition still exist, and it is necessary to observe the negotiation results after the 90-day postponement period‌16.

If negotiations are delayed until the end of 2025, the risk of technological decoupling may intensify‌6.

3. Event Timeline

‌January 2025‌: Trump reinitiates high tariffs on China (up to 145%)‌3

‌April 22‌: Trump sends signals of easing‌3

‌May 12‌: The Geneva Joint Statement is released with specific tariff reduction plans‌12

This easing marks a new phase in the trade war, but a complete resolution still requires more effort‌12. Short-term market optimism coexists with long-term structural challenges, and it is recommended to closely monitor the progress of subsequent negotiations.



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