#NewsTrade Since the mainnet went live on July 30, 2015, Ethereum has walked through a decade of development as a representative of Blockchain 2.0.
From a single smart contract platform to decentralized finance (DeFi) and the core infrastructure of Web3, Ethereum has achieved significant accomplishments in technological innovation and market impact.
The price of ETH rose from 0.31 USD/ETH during the ICO to a peak of 4880 USD/ETH in 2021, allowing everyone to witness the growth of the second largest cryptocurrency, and providing those who participated in the private placement with at least a 1000x return.
In the past three years, ETH has experienced a price drop from 4880 to 880 USD, and in the last four months, there was a roller coaster ride from 4100 USD to 1384 and then to 2608 USD. Everyone welcomed panic amidst hope, only to feel anxious while waiting.
Today, May 12, 2025, I will analyze the future of ETH in detail from the following ten dimensions, allowing you to better sell your ETH for 10,000 USD each.
1. Overall performance of ETH's monthly K over the past 10 years.
First, many people are concerned about how to operate ETH right now. My personal suggestion is: this wave of strong breakthroughs, with increasing funds entering on-chain, and the strong performance in recent days is something ETH has not experienced in the past four years. It is likely that this wave will lead to a beautiful surge, breaking through the previous high of 4100, which should not be a problem in June. It may even break through 5000 USD, so it is better to buy spot rather than easily short. Enter the market near 2300, without too much hesitation.
2. The performance of Ethereum's spot ETF.
As of May 12, 2025, Ethereum's spot ETF has shown positive performance since its launch on July 23, 2024, with steady growth in net inflow and trading volume. First, in the crypto circle, institutions are more willing to trust Bitcoin's spot ETF, so a significant amount of funds will likely be diverted from ETH's spot ETF.
Among them, in February 2025, the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF was nearly 145,000 ETH. The most pressing issue at present is the staking issue with the spot ETF, which the SEC has not approved as of now. Essentially, Ethereum operates on a POS model, while Bitcoin uses POW. Therefore, under this POS model, the ability to stake largely determines the price of ETH.
3. When will ETH explode in the bull and bear cycle?
Many people now say that the bull market has already passed, while others say it hasn’t arrived. In strict terms, we are indeed in a bull market; we just chose ETH as an asset, which has not seen the crazy bull market like the last round. Just look at BTC, which has risen from a low of 15,500 USD to now 109,000 USD. Is there really no bull market?
ETH's explosion is just a bit slow, not meeting the expectations of many, including myself, who hold several hundred. From the bear market to now, in terms of growth, it has really not performed as well as BTC, which is significantly lagging. But does that mean it really has no chance to explode?
I believe that with ETH's recent strong breakout, there will definitely be a nice trend in 2025. After four years of sideways movement, a significant breakthrough is inevitable, causing retail investors to go crazy and those who have not invested to start FOMOing, while those who are watching become anxious. This will be the time for us to exit, and as for how high the price can go, it is likely above 6000 USD.
4. Data on institutional whale accumulation of ETH.
On-chain data reveals that 'whale' addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH have quietly engaged in large-scale strategic accumulation before this price surge.
According to Glassnode data, since late April, the net position of these whale addresses has turned positive, and they have been steadily increasing their holdings.
The total supply of ETH held by these large entities has risen to the highest level since March 2025, exceeding 40.75 million ETH.
The continuous accumulation behavior of 'whales' is often interpreted by the market as a strong confidence from large, informed investors regarding the future market, and their active layout undoubtedly injects strong confidence into the entire Ethereum market, consolidating bullish expectations.
5. The divergence between ETH's TVL and ETH price.
Will there be a big explosion?
Institutions holding Ethereum's ETF have locked up a total of 3.4583 million ETH, of which 99.42% are from U.S. institutions, with the remainder from institutions in Hong Kong. Currently, the total amount of ETH is 120,818,236.
However, 34,198,932 ETH is currently staked in POS, accounting for 28.3% of the total supply, which is already a significant number, and this has been accumulated over a long period.
It is evident that in the nearly four years past, Ethereum's TVL has been continuously growing, but the price has not remained above the TVL growth curve. I wonder whether this year's ETH price will break above 5000 USD and remain above the TVL growth curve.
Why did ETH experience such a strong breakout after nearly four years of sideways movement? Among all the speculations, I believe one thing is worth believing: the prolonged four-year washout was for a change of hands, as Wall Street capital wants better control over ETH.
ETH has completed the latest upgrade, Pectra. Although many young friends interpret this as unfavorable for ETH's development, including the use of L2 to share traffic, reducing Gas fees, allowing non-native tokens to replace Gas, and increasing the staking limit, it does indeed benefit the network of ETH.
The development of RWA, although it feels a bit far-fetched, indeed includes giants like BlackRock and Fidelity laying out their RWA infrastructure on ETH, which could stimulate users' imagination about RWA, similar to how the last round of DeFi stimulated ETH price increases.
6. What has Ethereum's upgrade brought to ETH?
Ethereum's technological upgrades are driving its transformation from a 'noble chain' to 'high-performance infrastructure,' achieving core breakthroughs.
1. Mainnet performance leap: The disruptive impact of the EIP-9698 proposal, which plans to increase the Gas limit from 36 million to 3.6 billion in stages, raising the theoretical TPS of the mainnet from 15 to 2000, directly challenging the dominance of high-performance public chains like Solana. The first phase (Gas limit raised to 360 million) will occur in 2025-2026, with single-block transaction capacity jumping from 180 to 6000, and transaction costs expected to decrease by 90%.
Quantum resistance and RISC-V architecture: The Ethereum Foundation is collaborating with IBM to develop a quantum-resistant signature algorithm, expected to be deployed in 2026; the new virtual machine architecture RISC-V enhances smart contract execution efficiency by a hundredfold, with ZK proof costs decreasing by 80%.
2. Layer 2 ecosystem explosion: The rise of the invisible empire, user and capital siphoning: Leading Layer 2s like Arbitrum and Optimism have weekly active addresses surpassing 5.8 million, accounting for 58% of the total DeFi trading volume; institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity are laying out tokenized funds (RWA) through Layer 2, with monthly locked amounts growing by 37% to 48 billion USD.
Technical integration breakthrough: Uniswap V4 launches on the Base network, implementing a hybrid architecture of 'L2 liquidity aggregation + mainnet settlement,' reducing trading slippage to 0.05%.
3. Pectra upgrade: Blob expansion and cross-chain collaboration. The Pectra upgrade will increase the Blob target from 3 to 6, significantly enhancing L2 network throughput and paving the way for the subsequent EIP-9698.
4. On-chain data divergence: The number of active addresses on Layer 2 has surpassed 13.6 million, reaching a historical high, while the price remains at a bear market low, creating a severe dislocation between technology and the market.
7. Analyzing Ethereum's price prediction this round.
Here we refer to several different dimensions of price predictions.
First, the price prediction analysis given by institutions for ETH: This round will break 5000 USD, and in an optimistic case, it will break 10,000 USD. The 5000 USD price is the previous high for ETH, while the 10,000 USD price in 2025 should be achievable under a 125 basis point interest rate cut.
Second, the ETH price prediction given by AI suggests that in 2025, the highest price for ETH will be 5300 USD. This prediction seems to be based on the current situation without interest rate cuts, and AI does not have a positive long-term outlook on ETH, which may be due to issues with the predictive model.
Third, regarding past bull and bear cycle references, the majority of KOLs in the market generally believe that this round's ETH price will be around 5000 USD, and the real FOMO emotional peak is likely to be in 2026, with a strong possibility of reaching 10,000 USD each.
8. How should we approach long-cycle investments?
1. Market cycles are eternal; fools only make friends with time. Making money in a bull market relies on luck, while in a bear market, it relies on discipline.
2. Regular investment is the optimal solution for ordinary people: no need for precise bottom fishing, no need to mythically escape the peak, regularly buy and mechanically execute; the market will ultimately reward those who are patient. Remember, this is limited to BTC, at most also applies to ETH, BNB, and SoL.
3. Emotion is the biggest enemy, and rules are the best weapon: 'No analysis, no watching the market, no panic, no anxiety.' Set the strategy and execute it strictly to avoid human weaknesses interfering.
4. Idle money investment, invincible mindset: Only with funds that do not affect your life can you reach the mindset of 'it doesn't matter if it goes to zero,' and it is precisely this mindset that makes it easier to hold onto significant market trends.
5. Simple Strategy > The more complex the analysis, the more likely the trading system will fail; the simpler the rules, the easier they are to execute over the long term.
6. The core of making money is 'holding on': 95% of profits in the crypto circle come from 5% of the time, but most people miss the main uptrend due to frequent operations and premature profit-taking.
7. Getting rich is an accident, compounding interest is the right path: 'Fools' do not pursue getting rich overnight, but instead allow their funds to grow steadily over cycles; time will amplify the power of compounding.
8. The ultimate winners are often the 'lazy' people; those who frequently trade and chase hot trends are ultimately consumed by fees and emotions; while the 'lazy' regular investors can win passively in a bull market.
9. My perspective on ETH in this round
Records of buying the dip and future market views
Here, everyone can see my precise two bottom fishing actions when the ETH price was at 1400 USD.
The two bottom fishing prices were: 1428 and 1388 USD. This chart can be checked in my social circle. I knew that these two bottom fishing prices were at a low point during the bull market for ETH. For me, a long-term investor who is optimistic about ETH, this price is very high in terms of cost-effectiveness. The 1388 USD order entry had some luck, but more came from analyzing on-chain data.
Regarding the subsequent operations of ETH: First, I believe that in the short term, such a strong rise suggests a high probability of breaking through 3000 in May. I think there will be another wave of strong rise starting in late June, with prices potentially breaking 5000 USD, or even reaching 6000 USD. This will set the tone for ETH this year, making the price range of 8000 to 10,000 USD not just a dream. Any corrections might not occur until around August.
Since the probability of interest rate cuts in June is low, it means that there is a high chance of a 50 basis points cut in July. Positive news often arrives in advance, making the strong upward trend that began in late June quite reasonable.
10. Outlook for ETH's future: The value anchor in the Web3 era
1. Market capitalization and ecological milestones.
2025-2027: If technological upgrades and regulatory benefits resonate, ETH's market value is expected to surpass Bitcoin, becoming the first smart contract platform to exceed one trillion USD.
2028-2030: It is expected that 50% of global financial contracts will be on-chain on Ethereum, with RWA tokenization scale exceeding 16 trillion USD.
2. Long-term technical vision, anti-quantum and cross-chain collaboration: Completing the deployment of quantum-resistant algorithms by 2026; EVM may become an international clearing standard, rivaling the SWIFT system.
In conclusion: Many viewpoints in this article represent my personal understanding and judgment of the market and do not constitute investment advice for you.