If America intervenes to cease fire between Pakistan and India during a war, it would have major geopolitical and economic implications—especially on trade. Here’s a breakdown:
1. Immediate Impact on Trade
Trade Disruption: During active conflict, bilateral trade between Pakistan and India would likely halt. Ports, borders, and supply chains would be closed or severely restricted.
Regional Trade: South Asian trade would be affected. Countries like Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Central Asian states would face delays or disruptions.
Global Trade Routes: Any escalation near the Arabian Sea could affect shipping lanes and oil transport, leading to global price hikes.
2. If America Enforces a Ceasefire
Stabilization of Markets: Once a ceasefire is in place, regional and global markets would begin to stabilize, especially oil, energy, and agriculture sectors.
Improved Investor Confidence: A peaceful resolution (especially mediated by a superpower like the US) would improve investor sentiment in both countries.
Potential for Trade Talks: The ceasefire could open the door to restoring trade ties, easing tariffs, and potentially boosting cross-border commerce if peace holds.
3. Long-Term Possibilities
Shift in Alliances: U.S. involvement could shift how both countries engage with global powers like China, Russia, and the Gulf states.
Economic Pressure: America might use economic tools like sanctions relief or aid to encourage peace, which could further influence trade policies in both nations.
