Ethereum (\u003cc-27/\u003e) has surged into TikTok's trending searches, retail FOMO sentiment has peaked; this is not proof of a bull market restart, but a strong warning that the market is forming a 'historic head'.
TikTok trending searches = emotional peak signal, retail investors entering = smart money preparing to exit.
Every time mainstream media and short video platforms excessively report on ETH, history repeats itself: November 2021: ETH surged to $4,800, went viral on TikTok, and subsequently plummeted by 70%. Before the LUNA collapse in May 2022, TVL and popularity surged, marking the end of a massive influx of new entrants. TikTok's trending searches signal 'everyone chasing high', which has never been the start of a bull market, but rather the final blow of a bubble.
CPI data will be released on Tuesday; if inflation does not decrease, the market will be confronted with reality.
The market is currently overly optimistic about CPI expectations (estimated at 3.0%), but in reality, service-related inflation and rents remain very sticky. If CPI data comes in slightly higher than expected (e.g., above 3.1%), it will directly crush the June rate cut expectations, and risk assets like ETH will face selling pressure. Historically, every time CPI misses expectations, U.S. Treasury yields soar, and ETH has averaged a decline of 8-15% within a week.
Technical indicators are completely diverging, ETH price is rising but on-chain activity has not followed.
Although the price of ETH has surged to around $2,600, the number of active addresses has not risen in sync, creating a disconnect from the 2021 bull market. DEX trading volume remains sluggish, and DeFi TVL has not shown any significant recovery. There is a 'bubble-like divergence' between price and actual demand; this wave is merely capital speculation, not a rise in value.
The main force is selling in batches at high positions, and there are already signs of 'distribution' on-chain.
In the last 48 hours, over $500M worth of ETH has been transferred to exchanges. Once a rapid price correction is triggered, this ETH may directly crash the market, causing a chain reaction of flash crashes. Coupled with highly leveraged retail positions, ETH only needs to drop below $2,300 to potentially plunge to $1,900-$1,700.
Trending searches are a trap, not hope; FOMO is the calm before the slaughter. Ethereum trending suggests that CPI will reveal the truth. The current price of ETH is on the edge of a cliff, not a launch pad. Tuesday will be the watershed moment; what you need to think about now is not 'how much higher can it go', but 'can I escape this'.
