Today we continue to analyze the upcoming market conditions. The market conditions have been very good recently, and Bitcoin is approaching a new high. It has now reached 104K. The previous high of 109K must be a resistance level, which is not easy to break through. But once it breaks through, there will be a bright future ahead. Because according to the current environment, the Federal Reserve has not announced a rate cut, but funds are already ready to move. Once the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut, there will be a big rise next.
Let’s look at the trend mentioned in the previous program. The weekly trend line has bottomed out and is moving upward, which still meets expectations.
And the "new" bottom-picking indicator analyzed in the March article clearly stated when to bottom-pick in this round, which is when gold starts to fall!
The following figure shows that on April 23, gold fell when it reached 3,500. You can see when this round of market surged. The price of Bitcoin rose from 8.7w on April 23 to 9.4w with a super positive line, and a big positive line directly broke through the MA200 antenna. (Be low-key, calm, sit down!)
Let me mention this one more. In the program on April 9, I also expressed the view that all reactionaries are paper tigers. Let's see if Trump is scared now. After all, the US stock market has fallen so much and he is under a lot of pressure. There are so many people in the United States speculating in stocks, and they will definitely scold him to death. So you see, the tariff policy is just like that and it is dealt with hastily.
Ethereum is the only one that stands out!
Ethereum is a standout in the recent market, rising 80% from the lowest point of 1400 to the current 2500. On April 27, I used a short video to explain my view on Ethereum. I am optimistic about Ethereum in the long term. There are so many big Vs in the currency circle who are pessimistic about Ethereum, especially the picture of Ethereum breaking through 100,000, Ethereum 4000, and Ethereum breaking through 100,000 for the second time, Ethereum 3000! Although I am also pessimistic about many projects, I have never been pessimistic about Ethereum. They can't see the value of Ethereum, but only see the price of Ethereum! I think those who don't understand the value of Ethereum don't need to play in the currency circle.
The rise of Ethereum this time is still due to the upgrade of Pectra. Although Ethereum updates very slowly, it has been updating, getting better, and building! It is not a garbage project, it is a valuable project.
This Pectra upgrade integrates the previously planned "Prague" (execution layer) and "Electra" (consensus layer) changes, which also means the finalization of the Splurge phase and marks the next step towards the comprehensive Danksharding route. The following is Ethereum's upgrade roadmap, which was proposed in 2022 and has been mentioned many times in the community before.
So, don’t think that Ethereum is no good. At least it is currently recognized as the second in the industry and the second largest public chain by market value. Moreover, it is a “strong man” that is constantly getting better and exercising. What reasons do you have to believe that it is no good?
There are also many news reports saying that this is a short squeeze, that is, when it was at the 1400 position, there were too many short sellers. These are temporary data. You should look at a project at a higher point. As the saying goes: you can't guess the short-term market, and you don't need to guess the long-term market! Good things will always shine!
And once Ethereum completes the darksharding sharding solution, many high-speed public chains will disappear! The reason why high-speed public chains are so popular now is that they take advantage of the low speed of Ethereum. Of course, this is also their opportunity, but there is not much time left for these projects.
Data analysis
First of all, Bitcoin’s market capitalization share is still 62.3% at present. The higher the share, the more it means that the bull market has not yet arrived. However, a turning point has appeared recently, indicating that the bull market may have begun!
ETF Data
Bitcoin ETF data has been continuously inflowing this month. As can be seen from the figure below, except for the net outflows on April 30 and May 6, the outflows were very low, only at the level of 50 million and 80 million, but the net inflows were all in the hundreds of millions of US dollars!
However, the inflow of Ethereum's ETF is relatively general, which shows that the rise of Ethereum this time is not due to ETFs, but to retail investors or large retail investors.
From the figure below, we can see that the changes in the top 100 Ethereum addresses are constantly increasing. This is actually easy to understand, because the best way for whales to hold Ethereum is to stake it. Since the top 100 addresses hold at least 100,000 Ethereum (worth 250 million US dollars), a 4% return per year is 10 million.
Of course, I think this doesn’t really mean anything, because there are many staking and staking projects, which can allow many retail investors to participate, so this data growth can only mean that the ecosystem is prosperous, allowing many small retail investors to participate in the continuous construction of Ethereum. And the figure below does reflect this problem, ETH staking continues to increase!
What will happen to the market next?
Currently, according to the market trend of the cryptocurrency circle and the U.S. stock market, the U.S. stock market has bottomed out and rebounded to the retracement range. There may be a need for a correction in the short term. In the long term, the double bottom range has been established, and a triple bottom range will be established later!
Because in the short term, there is really no big positive news, after all, it was announced in May that there would be no interest rate cut. So in the short term, there may be a correction opportunity, but it is unclear how strong it will be. At present, it is not easy for retail investors to get cheap chips so easily!
But this time we can refer to history. In 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times. The first was on September 18, 2024, by 50 basis points. On September 7, Bitcoin soared from 54,000 to 66,000. The second rate cut was on November 7, 2024, by 25 basis points. Bitcoin rose from 67,000 on November 4 to 93,000. The third rate cut was on December 18, 2024, by 25 basis points, and Bitcoin broke through 100,000 US dollars.