Some Thoughts on This Round of BTC Bull Market and ETH Bear Market

In a market without incremental growth, the game is zero-sum between retail investors and big players, as well as between institutions. Such markets, like XX, are not worth investing in. For ordinary people, the only market worth investing in is one with incremental growth, capturing the beta of industries and large cycles or even medium-term trends, making money easily and simply. This is also why the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market have investment value; the US stock market represents the advanced productive forces of the Earth, while cryptocurrencies represent advanced productive relationships, serving as a natural reservoir under the long-term cycle of US dollar interest rate cuts. This is the essence of cycles and industry beta.

Returning to the current high position of BTC, neither retail investors nor institutions can take on this market. Incremental growth is necessary, and it comes from interest rate cuts in the US dollar and from US Treasury stablecoins. Beisen stated that the demand for crypto assets will reach up to $2 trillion, with stablecoins being the largest incremental demand for US Treasuries, while the total market cap of stablecoins is only a little over $200 billion. Consider what a massive wave this is; only such incremental growth can absorb BTC at this level.

I believe BTC will not see a significant correction; in fact, even if passengers are reversing, they will not get on board, and the washout is only affecting themselves. The more people short BTC at high positions, the more BTC will rise, crushing the shorts until everyone FOMO's in. BTC will slowly rise and gradually release its holdings during this process.

Just a few days ago, 90% of people in the market were despairing of ETH, with very few optimistic about it. I want to say, if you do not believe in ETH in the cryptocurrency market, what else can you believe in? The value of BTC is consensus, while ETH truly has applications, ecosystems, and the second-largest market cap. If you do not believe in ETH, you should leave the cryptocurrency market and invest in US stocks.