$BTC Recently surged past $104,000, the market has gone insane. From news media to retail forums, everyone says 'next stop 120,000, 150,000', but this is the most dangerous signal in history.
Here’s why I believe Bitcoin is on the brink of a super crash, potentially plummeting 20-30% within days:
Technical indicators are crazily distorted, overbought to an extreme
The daily RSI is nearing 90, and the MACD divergence is expanding, showing extreme divergence, completely deviating from a healthy trend. Prices soar but trading volume does not expand in sync = false rally, true bait for longs. Every time RSI > 88 has historically seen major corrections: in April 2021, December 2017, and November 2013, all dropping over 30%.
CPI + Federal Reserve double-killing storm is about to explode
Next week, the US CPI data will be released, market expectations have been lowered, but actual inflation remains stubbornly high. If it exceeds expectations, the market will flee in panic. The Federal Reserve has hinted that it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates this year; the market is still dreaming. Once the dream ends, risk assets will face severe damage. High interest rates + high inflation = dual pressure on valuations, and assets like Bitcoin, which have 'zero cash flow', will be the first to be cut.
On-chain data: the main forces have already quietly escaped
According to Glassnode data, BTC saw a net inflow of over 25,000 coins to exchanges in the last 7 days, reaching a new high since 2022. The backlog of profit-taking positions is as high as 45%. This highly stacked profit position, once it declines, will trigger a chain reaction of 'runaway' selling. The active sellers are old money, while the active buyers are retail investors. This is a perfect slaughterhouse pattern.
The moment of great change approaches: geopolitical risks are alleviated, demand for hedging plummets
Peace talks between India and Pakistan, easing Middle East conflicts, and the resumption of economic contacts between China and the US — these should be positive developments but could lead to a crash in Bitcoin. Because the reasons for capital hedging disappear, the digital gold property reverses, and funds will massively shift back to the dollar, government bonds, and even US stocks.
Community sentiment overheating = late-stage bull market characteristic
Google Trend 'Bitcoin' search volume skyrockets, FOMO enters a crazy stage. Reddit and X (Twitter) users are generally leveraging long positions, retail investors are excited, while the main forces remain silent — this is the signal for unloading!