If someone frequently asks you whether to go long or short now, then they are foolish. If you often answer their questions without thinking, then you are an even bigger fool. Why? Because discussing trends without considering levels is nonsensical.
For example, the daily chart of Bitcoin.
The moving averages show a bullish trend, and the Chande theory tells us that it is not yet at the end. The MACD has not diverged either.
This tells us that now is the time to go long; going long is the wisest choice. We should follow the big trend and go against the small one.
But when we open the 4-hour market chart:
The market is starting to become unclear. From the perspective of moving averages, it is neither bullish nor bearish; it is starting to become twisted. Those who understand naked K should know that this forms a trading range, which has no trend. Both going long and short are possible; within this trading range, one can go high short and low long, treating every rise or fall within the trading range as an absolute reversal to trade. Draw a trend line and make a reversal from short to long; this rise is to capture the profit from the shift from long to short, and this decline is to capture the profit from the shift from short to long.
If we open the 30-minute chart:
You will find that the moving averages are in a very obvious bearish arrangement, and the strength of this decline is also very strong. Therefore, the bias we derived from the 20-minute chart is that we should go short; going short is the wisest choice, so you see:
Daily chart: Bias: Long
Bitcoin 4-hour chart: Bias: High short, low long
30-minute chart: Bias: Short
The cycles and levels I mentioned are different; the biases for going long or short will also differ. This is why discussing trends without considering levels is nonsensical, and discussing long and short without levels is foolish.
Why does this happen? Let me give you an example so you can understand:
Now we have Zhang San, Li Si, and Wang Wu, who are going on a trip. They need to check the weather in advance. Zhang San plans to go out this afternoon to a nearby park to play for the afternoon, so he will only pay attention to whether it will rain in the next few hours. This is similar to the mindset of short-term traders who are very sensitive to short-term market fluctuations and must pay close attention.
Li Si plans to go out tomorrow; his travel plan is to vacation in a city several hundred kilometers away for a week. Therefore, Li Si will check the weather forecast for the coming week to roughly know if the next few days are suitable for going out. This is similar to mid-term traders in the market who focus on trends over the next few days and develop strategies based on longer market dynamics.
Wang Wu plans to take a nationwide road trip, which may last for several months or even a year. Therefore, Wang Wu will pay attention to the weather in the coming months to see if he needs to leave before autumn to avoid harsh winter weather. This is similar to long-term investors who care about long-term market changes and make plans based on the bigger picture.
If Zhang San, Li Si, and Wang Wu sit together and start blaming each other for not being able to check the weather forecast before understanding each other's travel plans, then who would you say is smart among these three? So you see, the corresponding trading market is the same.