ETH jumped sharply from 1700 to 2600 in three days, seemingly a strong rebound, but in reality, it is just the last illusion before a crisis. I can state clearly:

This is a highly manipulated technical rebound, not a fundamental-driven return of the bull market. Next week, it is very likely that a bloodbath-level correction will occur, and even falling below 2000 is not an extreme scenario. Here are my bearish reasons!

1. The technical aspect is overbought to the limit, and momentum is severely overdrawn.

ETH surged over 50% in three days, with the K-line completely breaking away from the upper track, and RSI skyrocketing above 85; this is not a healthy rise, it is an uncontrolled bubble. There is no support capable of sustaining such accelerated upward movement. Once the bulls exhaust themselves, it will enter a 'technical free fall'.

2. Short covering ≠ the starting point of a bull market.

This rally is caused by a rapid squeeze due to a large number of short positions being forcibly closed, but this is merely a technical rebound, not a fundamental reversal. Without trading volume support and without continuous capital inflow, it is just a false rise.

3. The macro environment is completely bearish: funds are withdrawing from risk assets.

Interest rate cut expectations have failed, inflation data has rebounded, the bond market is turbulent, and the dollar index has rebounded — all variables are unfavorable for cryptocurrencies. The Federal Reserve has signaled 'maintaining high interest rates for a longer period', and the pressure of funding costs will continue, leaving ETH without fundamental support to stay above 2600.

4. The application layer is quiet, with insufficient actual demand.

L2 network daily active users are declining, DeFi locked positions show no significant recovery, and NFT liquidity is still near freezing point. ETH does not have enough fuel to support this rally; it is merely a dead cat bounce.

5. The main players are leveraging good news to push prices higher for offloading, and on-chain data has already issued warnings.

A large amount of ETH is flowing into CEX (exchange) wallets, which is not due to institutional entry, but rather early whales preparing to sell off. On-chain address activity shows typical 'distribution phase characteristics'.

Conclusion: 2600 is a trap, not a breakthrough.

The market is currently in the most severe stage of 'cognitive bias', where everyone is confident that a bull market is returning, but the real situation is that funds are quietly fleeing, and panic has not yet erupted. Once the market awakens, ETH will quickly return to 2000, and may even challenge the 1700 support.