#AltcoinSeasonComing 🇨🇳‼️ China panics over trade negotiations and hides its economic data.
There is a sort of social contract among all the governments of the world to share economic data about prevailing conditions. Behind this practice lies a collegial competition to determine which nation has the most robust system, which in turn benefits capital markets by helping to direct resources where they are needed.
Sometimes the data is inaccurate. Sometimes there are lies. But, in general, at least there is an attempt to meet expectations. This allows agencies and investors to make better assessments and forecasts, in addition to helping policymakers, and particularly central bankers, make better decisions.
There is a general rule at play: The more transparent governments are with the data they collect and the greater the freedom of expression to interpret it in different ways, the greater their credibility. It is also likely that governments that share and debate also have figures they can be proud of.
Countries rarely maintain absolute silence about the market, like turning off switches and shutting down data rooms. It is an ominous sign.
This is precisely what has happened in China.
For several months, and in some cases for several years, China has stopped reporting on the following: land sales, foreign investment, unemployment figures, business confidence, the number of investors in financial markets, real estate valuation, retail sales, and even vital data on cremations, so that health authorities are unaware of the situation. Agencies have simply stopped reporting.
Given that it is the second-largest economy in the country and that there are widespread doubts about its economic health, this is very concerning.
Attentive observers have long expressed doubts about China's GDP data. It is said that the economy grew by 5% last year, which would be extremely impressive. However, these colossal figures are susceptible to manipulation in all countries, but especially in one that has made the promise of extreme economic growth a central element of the permanent power and control of the CCP. Experts have suggested that growth rates have been exaggerated by two to three percentage points.
Last December, Gao Shanwen, a prestigious Chinese economist, visited his colleagues at the Peterson Institute in Washington D.C. and was part of a panel of experts. Thinking that he should perhaps express his opinion, he stated clearly that no one knows for certain what China's growth rates are. He speculated that they could be around 2%.
‼️My own speculation is that in the last two or three years," he said, "real GDP on average could be around 2 percent, while the official figure is close to 5 percent‼️ @MikeiBRU14 @ManuelCasan2018 @nahueldubois @FernandoWe0281 @scanepa @LuciaCFAR