To determine the potential market bottom for BTC, it's important to consider several factors. Here are the main methods that can help identify the optimal moment for purchasing:
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1. Technical indicators:
📉 RSI (Relative Strength Index)
• RSI below 30 → indicates oversold conditions of the asset.
• Historically, when BTC RSI dropped below 30, the market was in a bottom phase before rising.
🔵 200-day moving average (200 MA)
• BTC has historically found support around the 200 MA on the daily chart.
• If the price falls below 200 MA and then rises back above — this is a signal for the bottom.
📊 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
• If the blue MACD line crosses the orange line from below — this is a signal to change the trend.
• If the MACD histogram shows upward movement after a long decline — a good moment to buy.
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2. Glass floor: Liquidity and volumes
• Volume growth on decline: if volumes sharply increase with a price drop, it means large players (whales) are buying BTC.
• Liquidation cluster: if large liquidations of longs and shorts occurred in a certain area — this often becomes a turning point.
3. Fundamental signals:
💰 Whale behavior and exchange flows
• Whale Alert and On-Chain analysis show whether large BTC holders (whale wallets) are moving coins to exchanges (for sale) or from exchanges (for storage).
• If many BTC are entering exchanges → selling pressure increases.
• If BTC is leaving exchanges to cold wallets → investors want to hold → likely bottom.
🏛 Fed policy and macroeconomics
• A decrease in US Fed interest rates often leads to an increase in risky assets, including BTC.
• QE (quantitative easing), money printing → bull market in crypto.
• Liquidity crisis or banking crises → people flock to BTC as 'digital gold.'
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4. Historical patterns (BTC Cycles)
📌 Bitcoin traditionally goes through a 4-year halving cycle:
• Bear market → accumulation (18–24 months after the last peak)
• Before the halving, BTC price is often at the bottom (about 6 months before the halving)
• Bull market starts 6–12 months after the halving
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How to act? (not an individual investment recommendation)
✅ 1. Split capital for averaging → enter in parts (DCA)
✅ 2. Watch for liquidity zones and clusters of liquidations
✅ 3. Focus on RSI, 200 MA, and MACD
✅ 4. Monitor whale actions and exchange flows
✅ 5. Consider macroeconomics (Fed rates, crises, money printing)
If BTC falls by 40–50% from its last peak — this is already a potentially strong averaging zone.
This is just a private analytical view. Before making decisions, always conduct your own research. You are responsible for your actions, the author shares opinions solely for educational purposes.
