Next Bitcoin Trend:

1. From a liquidity perspective, the upper short liquidity has been mostly captured, and without fuel, continuing to push prices up requires massive spot buying; the futures market no longer has momentum for further increases.

2. From a macro perspective, it has been confirmed that there will be no interest rate cuts in May and June, QT has not ended, and the market lacks liquidity, still operating under a mode of funding mutual cuts.

3. From a geopolitical perspective, the Russia-Ukraine war has not ended, and the India-Pakistan conflict has resumed.

4. From the candlestick pattern perspective, the price has already formed a breakout at the 4-hour level, but from the volatility range, it has deviated too far from the mid-track, reaching overbought conditions; my quantitative strategy has already issued a short signal.

In summary, I really can't find a reason for Bitcoin to continue rising. Perhaps the market doesn't need a reason to rise, but chasing the rise now is certainly not feasible; bullish momentum has weakened. The most likely scenario is a wave of consolidation here. I tend to favor a range of 100k-106k for this consolidation. Only after accumulating enough futures liquidity will Bitcoin choose a new trend direction.

A brief mention of altcoins: on the day of Ethereum's upgrade, there was not much movement; after the upgrade, it surged instead. The main force seems to be deliberately creating a large-scale short squeeze; the shorts hadn't even reacted when they experienced a series of liquidations, which in turn pushed Ethereum even higher. This wave of Ethereum's movement successfully boosted altcoins, retail sentiment became euphoric, and the altcoin season kicked off. Meme coins are still at the forefront, but currently, market funds are active, with little new capital coming in. It appears this wave of market activity won't last too long; the trend can still safely persist for a few days. Enjoy the altcoin season while Bitcoin consolidates!