I have reviewed the logic of tariffs. This is my personal opinion. I hope you can correct me.
First, the conclusion:
1. The Chinese are more united than the Americans, and the pressure from the upper class is less than that from the Americans. This is self-evident, the system has advantages.
2. Imports can’t hold us back
3. Even if there are deficiencies in exports, the period we can withstand is longer than that of the Americans, because we make them and they buy them. The products we make can be sustained for half a year, but you can’t buy them for half a year, can you imagine?
Then I am about to make a radical statement: Is it possible that the Chinese want you to impose tariffs?
You will still face high blood pressure vs. low blood sugar. I will rely on my ability to resist it better than you and the longer onset period to force you to put as much pressure on yourself as possible and make yourself chaotic.
So I feel like we won't be able to reach an agreement, and I might even make some hawkish remarks.
text:
The tariff negotiations between the United States and major economies have basically begun
At present, Japan, Britain and India are the main countries. The negotiation results are OK, but there are obviously many disputes. Not to mention other countries.
The start of this series of tariff talks, coupled with the fact that some states in the United States have begun to pass Bitcoin-related investment bills, has given the market confidence to this point.
After the pre-conference, let's talk about the core issue, China-US tariffs
First, let’s look at the economic performance of both sides
In terms of data
The economic data from the United States does seem to be quite resilient, and the impact does not seem to be significant. The negative growth of GDP is also due to the prevention of large-scale stockpiling of tariffs. The CPI in April was also quite good. It is not clear how much impact the tariffs will have for the time being.
The old Chinese are not bad, but to be honest, I haven't paid much attention to the situation in my own country (it's a bit abstract). However, looking at the export data, it seems that there is no impact. If fewer people go to the United States, they can make up for it from other countries.
So in short, both brothers acted like "It doesn't matter if I add it or not, I will live my life as usual"
But there is a problem here
Everyone must have heard the joke of high blood pressure vs. low blood sugar many times.
It is hard to tell which of these two problems is more painful.
But if you focus on one person, or two leaders, it becomes more obvious.
You said that the large Chinese manufacturing and export enterprises are suffering from the overstocking and lack of business, but the problem is that their suffering cannot affect the upper echelons.
Big brother is really nice. The central bank took action before the Federal Reserve and lowered the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates to flood you with money. You can't do it with some low-interest loans.
You change to Laomei?
First of all, they have always had a trade deficit, exchanging money for things. If you impose tariffs, the cost of living will definitely increase first.
The economy is already bad, and people are complaining. Now the cost of living, CPI, and inflation are rising. Of course, the unemployment rate should be better.
What is more abstract is that the Federal Reserve does not listen to the President. If you look back, the tariffs will last a little longer, and the cost of living will start to rise significantly, this high inflation, CPI, and low unemployment rate, it will be easy for President Bao to delay the rate cut for a few more months.
The most important thing is that Trump cannot tolerate a fall in the stock market or dissatisfaction among the people. After all, there is pressure from the mid-term elections.
To put it bluntly, no one here can resist
Let’s look at the proportion of imported goods between China and the United States.
The main imports from Laos are
1: High-end equipment and semiconductors, etc., these are not easy to import in the first place, and then the abstract thing is that Trump actually released the chips 😂, I really don’t understand this, your tariffs don’t seem to have much impact on this aspect. You couldn’t buy them before, and now you can’t afford them?
2: Agricultural products, Argentina and Brazil have something to say about this...
3: Energy, metal materials, etc.: Old Goose and White Hat Prince, I think, can also support it, I think this will not block us
US Imports:
1: High-end equipment: Yes, everyone should know that the Chinese do not buy all high-end equipment from abroad. We also sell optics, nuclear, and machinery. It is not easy for the Americans to get these equipment from other places, so we buy them from abroad until we can’t afford them.
2: Light and heavy industrial products: Needless to say, these account for the majority, that is, industrial products. To put it bluntly, Trump's goal is to buy less of these from China, buy some from other places, and then return some to the United States. However, if you return to the mainland, it will take at least two years to build a factory and set up a platform. Where did you buy things in these two years? Southeast Asia? Are you going to suck the blood of China at the doorstep of China? ? ? Under the premise that China keeps making dumplings in the sea? ? ? Besides, if China asks you to buy, can the scale and model of Southeast Asia really stand the test? Waiting for them to develop, this will take longer than returning to the mainland.
So to sum up,
1. The Chinese are more united than the Americans, and the pressure from the upper class is less than that from the Americans. This is self-evident, the system has advantages.
2. Imports can’t hold us back
3. Even if there are deficiencies in exports, the period we can withstand is longer than that of the Americans, because we make them and they buy them. The products we make can be sustained for half a year, but you can’t buy them for half a year, can you imagine?
Then I am about to make a radical statement: Is it possible that the Chinese want you to impose tariffs?
You will still face high blood pressure vs. low blood sugar. I will rely on my ability to resist it better than you and the longer onset period to force you to put as much pressure on yourself as possible and make yourself chaotic.
So I feel like we won't be able to reach an agreement, and I might even make some hawkish remarks.
To sum up, I have sorted out and summarized it myself, and I don’t expect others to read it (happy)