As of today, the market has shown itself to be quite positive, but, as I mentioned earlier, a change in trend can only be discussed after the opening of the second half of the quarter. The first half is merely a pullback and retest of the key levels broken in the first quarter. Today – tomorrow we are passing an important bifurcation point. Currently, 2500 for Ethereum and 100k for Bitcoin are only retest levels. However, over the past two weeks, the chances of a trend change have significantly increased, where the targets could be 210k for Bitcoin and up to 7500k for Ethereum. This scenario is possible if the second half of the quarter opens above 2500 and 100k, respectively. Contributing to the achievement of these levels may be the rise in oil prices in the new week, weak statistics from the USA in the second half of the week, or strong GDP from Europe and Britain, as well as a possible temporary truce in Ukraine, which would give impulses to the stock market and the cryptocurrency market as well.
From May 11-12, the seasonal wave of sales begins. In a positive scenario today or tomorrow, Ethereum may reach 2500 and the new week will open above this level. In this case, in the first half of the week, we will see only sales within the shadow of the new weekly candle, and from Tuesday to Wednesday, the altcoin market will start to return to growth, which may last until the end of the semester if the second half of the quarter also opens above 2500. In this scenario, most coins will additionally show growth of 50-150% from current levels.
In a more negative, and technically more likely scenario, the new week will open below 2500, which will lead to a significant decline in the altcoin market at the beginning of the week and a return of Ethereum to 1900-2000 with further struggles for a new test of 2500 until the end of the month or a continuation of sales down to 1400-1500.
Due to the dangerous situation, it is worth carefully weighing the volume of funds in play and reducing positions with further additions to coins if the week opens above 2500 for Ethereum. The most undervalued today are only fan tokens, which can show good growth even in a negative market, as they will remain the most interesting option for speculators in case of Ethereum's decline. Among them, I first consider ATM City and ACM. It is also worth monitoring coins tagged with monitoring, as they are sold most actively when a market correction approaches. They can also contribute to the overall decline of altcoins.