#山寨季何时到来
Altcoin Season Trigger Conditions and Time Prediction
1. Short-term Catalysts (Q2-Q3 2025)
◦ Ethereum ETF Approval: If the SEC approves the ETH ETF in May-June, it will drive a rebound in DeFi and Layer 2 tokens (such as Optimism and Arbitrum).
◦ Bitcoin Stabilization: If BTC breaks above $100,000 and enters consolidation (e.g., stabilizing in the $95,000-$105,000 range), funds may rotate into the altcoin sector.
2. Medium-term Window (Q3-Q4 2025)
◦ Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Once interest rates are lowered, improved liquidity will spur a surge in Meme coins (such as DOGE and PEPE) and low market cap projects.
◦ Regulatory Clarity: If altcoin ETFs like Solana and XRP are approved, it will attract institutional participation.
3. Long-term Cycle (Q1 2026)
◦ Post-Bitcoin Halving Effect: After the BTC price rise cycle triggered by the halving in 2024 completes, funds may fully shift to altcoins, with market cap share potentially exceeding 65%.