Heartfelt Words About Tonight's Market: Don't Let FOMO Distract You
Brothers, my private messages have been flooded with questions about tonight's market outlook. To be honest, seeing everyone online shouting 'Tonight is definitely going to rise' makes me a bit worried. As an old investor who has experienced three bull and bear markets, I want to say something different.
1. About the Federal Reserve News
Everyone is discussing the expectations of interest rate cuts, but did you know? CME interest rate futures show that the market has long had expectations:
- 67% probability of no interest rate cut in June
- 82% probability of an interest rate cut in September
(Source: CME FedWatch Tool)
What's the key point? Big funds have already hedged in the futures market. Even if there is a short-term drop tonight due to no interest rate cut, that will just be institutions harvesting panic selling. Remember the lesson from March 2023: Everyone said 'Definitely an interest rate hike' at that time, and Bitcoin first dropped by 10% before surging by 30%.
2. The Truth About Government Buying Coins
New Hampshire did purchase Bitcoin, but the amount was only $5 million (Source: State Treasury Announcement). You should know:
- The state pension fund's size is about $9 billion
- Bitcoin allocation percentage is 0.05%
This is more like a political statement, so don't overinterpret it.
3. About Technical Aspects
I have compiled data from the past three years:
- Probability of a pullback after breaking previous highs: 73%
- Average pullback range: 12-15%
- Cases of successful real breakouts: Only the one in December 2020
Current Suggestions:
① For Spot Traders:
- You can gradually build positions above 67,500
- Increase positions by 10% for every 5% increase
- Total position should not exceed 50%
② For Contract Traders:
Is it time to go long at this position?
Leverage should not exceed 3 times
Set stop loss at 63,200 (last week's low)
Take profit in three batches: 68,500/69,500/71,000
Lastly, let me say something from the heart:
99% of 'analysts' in the market are just looking at charts and talking. Real trading opportunities often arise when everyone hesitates. Remember tonight, regardless of whether it rises or falls:
- Don't go all in
- Don't FOMO
- Be prepared for various possibilities
