Bitcoin Breaks Heavy Resistance Zone— But Can It Hold?
Bitcoin( $BTC USDT ) started to rise yesterday as the S&P 500 Index(SPX500) opened and it seems like it can break the Heavy Resistance zone($95,950-$88,500) this time, but there are still concerns from a technical analysis, so please stay tuned for this analysis.
Bitcoin is moving near the Resistance zone($100,200-$97,700) and has broken through the Heavy Resistance zone($95,950-$88,500) with good momentum.
In terms of Elliott wave theory, it seems that Bitcoin has completed microwave 3 near the Resistance zone($100,200-$97,700) and we should wait for the completion of microwave 4. The microwave 4 can be considered a pullback to the Heavy Resistance zone($95,950-$88,500).
I expect Bitcoin to drop to at least $96,000 and is likely to touch the Support zone($95,760-$95,200) and start rising again, since microwave 3 was with high momentum, it is possible that microwave 5 will even be truncated. The targets I have indicated on the chart can be the target of a long position.
If you are looking for a Bitcoin reversal, you can focus on the Time Reversal Zone(TRZ). The next major pivot will likely be within this time zone.
It seems reasonable to open a Long position near the Support zone($95,760-$95,200), and it can give us a good Risk-To-Reward. What do you think?
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My concerns for Bitcoin's continued bullish trend:
Because Bitcoin's correlation with US stock market indices, especially the SPX500, is higher than in previous weeks, my analysis is that there is a re-correction in the SPX500 index, which could prevent Bitcoin from continuing its upward trend.
The Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern is likely to complete, which could cause Bitcoin to fall further if the lower lines of this pattern are broken.
If tensions between Pakistan and India increase, it could prevent Bitcoin from growing further.
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Also, Today, the Federal Funds Rate is scheduled to be announced.
Let’s take a look at how this decision — along with Powell’s speech — might impact Bitcoin. Be cautious with your positions during the announcement and Powell’s remarks, as markets may become volatile.
Holding the rate steady is a signal of monetary policy stability, which could give risk assets like Bitcoin some breathing room in the short term.
Given recent U.S. economic data, markets are mainly focused on Powell’s tone during the press conference. If he adopts a dovish stance (hinting at potential rate cuts), this could support Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
However, if Powell emphasizes that rates will remain elevated for an extended period, we might see a temporary wave of selling pressure in the market.
Stay alert and manage your risk wisely — high-impact events like this can lead to sharp moves in crypto.
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Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $98,511-$97,774
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $95,966-$95,550
Note: If Bitcoin falls below $94,400, we can expect further declines.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze ( $BTC /USDT), 2-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).