My analysis on BTC has always been based on my own technical analyses in combination with logical thinking.
I often times ask myself the question:
"What would I do if I was the market maker?"
The answers to that question combined with my TA which is primarely focused on Wyckoff, I get to the conclusion explained in the MM manipulation playbook.
Lets keep things extremely basic and simple.
In September 2024, BTC confirmed the HTF accumulation model that took a 129 days to develop while having mitigated HTF key demand.
This lead to a breakout and increase in price of 48.47%.
In April 2025, BTC confirmed a HTF accumulation model that took 39 days to develop while frontrunning HTF key demand.
Therefore I have a question right now for all the people who are truly convinced BTC will reach 150K-200K this cycle.
Why would price have a more aggressive breakout than in 2024 when the accumulation is less in duration and demand hasn't been mitigated signaling less overall buying pressure WHILE the asset itself is bigger in size?
In my opinion it is more logical from an expectational standpoint to prepare for distributive price behavior, or in simple terms HTF deviations, and not continuations.
