On May 8, 2025, BTC reached a new local maximum, which may seem like a continuation of the bullish trend. However, behind this growth may lie danger — it looks like a potential signal of the bubble's end.
Why is the risk increasing?
Global financial markets are tense: the U.S. is reinstating tariffs on Chinese goods, escalating the trade war and putting pressure on supply chains. The situation increasingly resembles 2007 — systemic risks are rising.
The Fed is tightening its rhetoric: expectations for rate cuts have dissipated after Powell's statements. High interest rates will remain for a long time — this complicates the situation for risk assets, including cryptocurrency.
Movement of major players: over 20,000 BTC have been moved from cold wallets to exchanges in the last 48 hours — this is a signal of possible preparation for mass selling.
Technical signals warn: the RSI on the daily chart has reached 92 — the market is excessively overbought. There are all the prerequisites for a powerful correction.
U.S. debt on the edge: discussions on raising the debt ceiling and fluctuations in the bond market are pushing funds towards safe assets — the dollar and gold. BTC is struggling to compete with a strong dollar and high rates.
The price of $104,000 may turn out to be the last spike before a deep fall. If you haven't exited your positions yet, consider it now — the next stop could be significantly lower: $80K, $70K, or even $60K. The biggest risk is not in the fall, but in not being able to react in time.