Many investors are asking: "Where is the altcoin season? $BTC is flying, but altcoins are quiet as the dead!" The answer lies in market cycles — and more specifically in Bitcoin's Dominance.
Let's analyze based on historical patterns and what is happening now.
1. The altcoin season only starts when Bitcoin's Dominance decreases after a long uptrend.
Looking back at the last two market cycles (2017–2021 and 2022–2025), we see a repeating pattern:
📊 Bitcoin's Dominance tends to steadily increase for about 1,000 days before reversing sharply — and that is usually when the altcoin season actually begins.
In the previous cycle, BTC dominance dropped sharply right after Bitcoin peaked at the end of 2021.
Currently, Bitcoin's Dominance has increased exactly 1,066 days — almost perfectly matching the previous cycle.
The turning point may be closer than we think.
2. The altcoin season tends to occur at the end of Bitcoin's price uptrend.
Altcoins do not run ahead. They run after — like the final wave of the entire market.
The first price increases: Bitcoin dominates the capital flow.
The late-stage price increases: BTC slows down → capital shifts to altcoins → altcoin season explodes.
⏳ If you have been patient with Bitcoin, you will need double the patience with altcoin.
3. Altcoins are in a deep accumulation phase
The current altcoin market seems boring. But beneath the surface, things are rolling. Many altcoins are quietly accumulating at low valuations — especially small-cap gems. This phase often precedes explosive growth.
Just because they are quiet doesn’t mean they are weak.
4. My personal view
📌 Based on cycles, dominance structures, and macro liquidity trends, I believe that:
A true altcoin season is likely to begin in Q3 or Q4 of 2025, coinciding with:
The Fed's first interest rate cuts
Clear signs of economic recession in the US.
Inflation is trending back to 2%
Risk appetite is returning to global markets
Final thoughts
The altcoin season is the reward for those who are patient. If you have come this far with faith, do not give up before the turning cycle begins. But remember a golden rule:
Take profits while you are still smiling. Altcoins do not forgive greed.
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