Bitcoin Price Bullish Projection (May 2025)
Figure: Hypothetical daily closing price of Bitcoin (BTC) for May 2025 under a bullish scenario. The chart starts just below $100K and breaks the $100K milestone early in the month (annotated in red), then rises steadily thereafter. Axis labels mark May 2025 dates and USD price levels.
The above chart assumes Bitcoin continues the strong momentum of early 2025. By late April 2025, BTC was trading in the mid-$90K range, so breaking $100K in early May is plausible under continued bullish pressure. From there the projection shows roughly 0.7–1.0% daily gains, bringing BTC into the $120–125K range by month’s end. This steady uptrend reflects factors like sustained ETF inflows and a friendly macro backdrop. For example, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew record capital in recent weeks (about $3.3 billion in late April 2025), giving institutions an easy on-ramp. Taken together, these dynamics support a scenario where BTC’s price rises almost uninterrupted through May, as sketched in the figure.
Key Catalysts (Bullish Drivers)
ETF & Institutional Flows: The launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has brought massive inflows. In late April 2025, weekly ETF inflows hit roughly $3.3 billion (with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing $1 billion in one day). This democratisation of access has drawn new capital from pensions and asset managers, removing a big bottleneck for a price rally. Corporates like MicroStrategy (with $4B in BTC reserves) continue buying as well.
Supply Cut (Halving): The April 2024 halving reduced new Bitcoin supply by 50%, creating a lasting supply squeeze. Historically, each halving has preceded a multi-month bull market. This time too, the post-halving demand–supply imbalance is sending prices higher. In 2025, with block rewards still low, any increase in demand (as from ETFs) has an outsized effect on price.
On-Chain Strength: On-chain metrics show Bitcoin demand increasing. Large wallets are accumulating BTC, and exchange outflows recently hit two-year highs, indicating coins are leaving exchanges for cold storage. The short-term holder realized price (around $93–95K) has flipped from resistance into support, a classic bullish signal. In sum, long-term holders are not selling into this rally, which tends to prolong bull phases.
Technical Momentum: Technically, Bitcoin is trading above its long-term moving averages (200-day MA) and RSI is in a healthy range. Key resistance is the prior high near $108K, but given the ETF-driven momentum, this barrier may break. In fact, reclaiming the $93–$95K zone in late April already helped restore bullish sentiment. History shows that once such levels are retaken, prices often run to new highs.
Sentiment and Forecasts: Market sentiment is extremely bullish. Deribit options show traders buying far out-of-the-money calls – notably a $300K call for June 2025 has about $484M open interest, implying confidence (or at least a speculative “lottery ticket”) that BTC could triple from its $80K level. Many analysts echo the optimism: Standard Chartered projects ~$200K by year-end 2025, and Bernstein analysts similarly raised their 2025 target to $200K (from $150K) citing ETF flows. Even if these extremes are just year-end views, they frame the kind of upside momentum a May rally could build on.
Taken together, these factors make a steady May ascent reasonable. The chart above encapsulates this scenario: once Bitcoin decisively tops $100K (a psychologically and technically important level), continued ETF-driven demand and favorable macro conditions (a weak USD, pro-crypto policies) could carry it higher. By the end of May, the projection hovers around $120K–$125K. (Real-world volatility might cause small pullbacks or spikes, but the overall trend is firmly upward.)
Key Takeaway: Under the cited bullish catalysts – record ETF inflows, post-halving supply cuts, whale accumulation, and strong technicals – Bitcoin’s price could push above $100K in early May and then climb steadily through the month. The annotated chart above shows this hypothetical trajectory. Crossing $100K is treated as a major milestone; once past it, BTC leverages the new bull-cycle dynamics to approach even higher targets in the weeks that follow.
