#交易故事 #BTC交易 Future Outlook: Key Variables in the Second Half of 2025**

- **Macroeconomics**: If the Federal Reserve accelerates interest rate cuts, BTC may benefit from liquidity easing.

- **ETF Fund Flow**: If institutions continue to increase holdings, it may drive a new round of rallies.

- **Technological Development**: Will the adoption rate of Bitcoin Layer2 and innovations in smart contracts (such as RGB++, BitVM) bring about a new narrative?

- **Market Cycle**: Historical data shows that 18-24 months after a halving is usually the peak of a bull market, and the end of 2025 may be a critical time window.

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### **Summary: Cautiously Optimistic, Focus on Risks**

The Bitcoin market in 2025 is still in a bull market cycle, but volatility is increasing. **Strategy Recommendations**:

- **Long-term Holders (HODL)**: Can continue to hold positions, paying attention to on-chain fundamentals.

- **Short-term Traders**: Be aware of key support/resistance levels and manage leverage risk.

- **New Investors**: Accumulate positions in batches during dips, avoiding FOMO chasing highs.