Technical Three-Line Strangle Pattern
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is performing a high short balance technique in the $98,000-$99,000 range, with the Bollinger Bands showing a three-line encirclement.
The upper band has formed a high-pressure defense line four times in a row, and on-chain data shows $3.7 billion in short contracts accumulated here. However, BlackRock's spot holdings saw an increase of 25,000 BTC in a single week, indicating brewing breakout momentum.
The middle band at $94,500 has become the last defense line for the bulls, corresponding to the strategic bottom warehouse support of 600,000 BTC from institutions like BlackRock, sufficient to withstand regular selling pressure.
News Bombshell
On the positive side, there are three hidden killing opportunities:
BlackRock's spot ETF holdings have surpassed 600,000 BTC, equivalent to 3.2% of the total circulating supply.
CME's open contracts have surpassed $27 billion, reaching a historical peak.
Pectra's upgrade activates the ETH ecosystem, raising expectations for altcoin season.
Negative factors are like the Sword of Damocles:
The NASDAQ implied volatility index has surpassed the 25 warning line.
The expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has only a 73% fulfillment rate.
Grayscale GBTC saw a net outflow of $320 million in a single day again.
Trading Strategy: Twelve Hours of Tactics
Breakthrough and Follow-up Buying Rules
If the price breaks through $99,000 with volume and holds for two hours, positions can be built gradually along the five-minute candlestick chart, with the first target aiming for the historical psychological level of $105,000. Caution is needed for the magnetic effect of the CME futures gap in the $108,000-$112,000 range.
Head-Chopper Risk Control Technique
A death triangle area forms between $98,000 and $99,500 above the current price; any long upper shadow exceeding 2% should immediately trigger a hedging strategy. Referencing last night's spike at $98,500, a five-minute level fluctuation of over $800 has become the norm.
Survival Rules (Words that Strike Home)
Spot holders should emulate "Crouching Dragon Observing Stars": Maintain positions as steady as a mountain, waiting for a weekly level shift.
Contract players should remember "Zilong's Seven In and Seven Out": No single leverage position over 3 times, and holdings should not exceed 12 hours.
New entrants are advised to "Borrow Arrows with Straw Boats": Hedge volatility risks through options combination strategies.
Historical Alarm Bells Ringing
The current trend is highly similar to the oscillation structure before breaking $20,000 in 2017, but three major mutations must be noted:
1. Institutional holdings have exceeded 21% (only 3% in 2017).
2. The derivatives market has expanded 17 times.
3. The Federal Reserve's interest rate environment has completely reversed.
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