#BTC突破99K

### **Short-Term Bullish Momentum**

1. **Technical Breakthrough**: Bitcoin has broken through $99,000, approaching the key psychological resistance level of $100,000. If it stabilizes within the $98,000-$99,500 range, technical indicators (such as the rising moving average system and the four-hour Bollinger Band upper limit breakout) suggest a rapid surge towards $100,000, and possibly testing the $103,000-$105,000 area.

2. **Institutional Capital Support**: The U.S. Bitcoin ETF has seen continuous net inflows (with a net inflow of $142 million on May 7), and institutions like BlackRock are steadily increasing their holdings, along with companies (like Metaplanet) buying up shares, providing fundamental support for the price.

3. **Geopolitical and Policy Catalysts**: If the China-U.S. trade talks send signals of easing tensions, it may boost risk appetite; Trump's friendly stance towards cryptocurrencies and the delayed expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have been partially digested, but still provide potential emotional support for the market.

### **Pullback Risk Warning**

1. **Key Resistance and Selling Pressure**: There is historical selling pressure from long-term holders near the $100,000 mark, and the negative Coinbase Premium Gap indicates a cautious sentiment among U.S. investors, which may limit short-term breakout momentum.

2. **Increased Leverage Risk**: Recently, leveraged trading volume surged by 200%. If the price fails to stabilize at key levels, high-leverage long positions being liquidated may trigger a “whipsaw” effect, with short-term support needing to focus on $95,000 (four-hour level support) and $93,000 (daily level support).

### **Comprehensive Judgment**

The market trend over the next two days may show a **first surge followed by consolidation** pattern:

- **If it breaks through $100,000**: FOMO sentiment might drive a quick rise to $105,000, but be wary of pullbacks triggered by profit-taking;

- **If it is blocked and falls back**: It may consolidate in the $96,000-$97,000 range, waiting for further catalysts.

It is recommended to pay attention to statements from Federal Reserve officials and the progress of China-U.S. talks, while closely monitoring any changes in trading volume and the bullish-bearish battle at key resistance levels.