1. Core Points of Federal Reserve Policy
Monetary Policy Stance
Powell made it clear to maintain the current interest rate policy, consistent with the "higher for longer" stance indicated in the May FOMC meeting minutes.
Market Expectation Adjustment: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of maintaining interest rates in September has risen to 65%.
Political Independence Statement
The independent central bank principle established when the Federal Reserve was founded in 1913.
Historical Case: The rate hike cycle during Trump's tenure continued to advance in 2018.
2. Verification of China-U.S. Trade Dynamics
Tariff Status
301 Tariff: Average tax rate increased from 3% to 21%.
Key Areas: Electric vehicle tariffs recently rose to 100%.
Official Information Channel
The latest statement from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) indicates:
"There are currently no plans for new high-level trade negotiations."
3. Investor Response Strategies
Market Impact Assessment
Interest Rate Sensitive Assets: U.S. Treasury yield curve remains inverted.
Foreign Exchange Market: DXY index remains above 105.
Allocation Recommendations
Defensive Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP) has outperformed the S&P 500 by 3.2%.
Cash Management: Prioritize money market funds with yields of 5% or more.
4. Risk Warnings
Political Speech Filtering
It is recommended to obtain original meeting records through Bloomberg Terminal or Reuters Eikon.
Policy statements and personal remarks must be strictly distinguished.
Emotional Management
CNN Fear & Greed Index indicates the market is in the "Fear" zone.
It is advised to keep the portfolio's beta coefficient in the range of 0.8-1.2.
As the market continues to change, we must closely monitor market signals to seize new entry opportunities. Like + comment, and let’s navigate through this bull market and seize this major opportunity!
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