Technical Analysis: Crypto Markets Brace for FOMC Policy Signal📰
With the upcoming FOMC meeting on the horizon, crypto markets are positioning themselves for potential volatility, driven by rate policy and macroeconomic projections. Bitcoin ($BTC ) is currently consolidating around the $99K–$100K resistance zone, showing declining volume on lower time frames—a signal of indecision ahead of key macro data. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 58 on the daily chart, indicating moderate bullish momentum, while the MACD remains in a weak uptrend.
Traders are closely monitoring the Fed’s tone on inflation and potential rate cuts. A dovish pivot could trigger a breakout above BTC’s psychological $100K level, potentially targeting $105K–$108K short-term, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the recent $91K swing low. On-chain data also shows stable exchange outflows and accumulation by long-term holders, suggesting strong support in the $94K–$96K demand zone.
Conversely, a hawkish FOMC stance may reinforce risk-off sentiment, pushing BTC back toward its 50-day EMA support near $93.5K. Altcoins such as ETH, SOL, and AVAX remain tightly correlated, and could see amplified moves based on BTC’s reaction.
From a macro lens, the CME FedWatch Tool currently prices in a 60% probability of rate cuts beginning Q3 2025. This forward guidance remains a key variable for institutional flows into crypto, particularly post-ETF approval.
Overall, expect high volatility near the FOMC announcement, with smart money likely seeking confirmation before initiating directional plays. Traders should remain cautious and utilize tight risk management protocols.