Powell Repeats 'Wait and See' 11 Times, Federal Reserve Steady on Fishing Platform: Interest Rates Unchanged, Economy Dependent on External Factors? 🎣

Last night, the Federal Reserve, as expected, remained steady, maintaining interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, emphasizing that the economic outlook is filled with uncertainty. The statement pointed out that the dual risks of high inflation and unemployment are on the rise, and after a brief market dip, the S&P 500 rebounded, closing up 0.43%.

Powell mentioned 'Wait and See' 11 times throughout the session, sending a signal: no one should rush anyone, we need to wait and see. He trusts hard data more, stating that the U.S. economy is still operating robustly, but also acknowledged that tariffs on imports complicate the data, which may mislead judgments about GDP.

When asked 'which comes first, inflation or employment?', he did not provide a definitive answer, only saying that future choices may have to be made.

Regarding Trump's repeated calls for interest rate cuts, Powell clearly stated: the president's opinion does not matter, the Federal Reserve makes its own decisions. As for whether he would meet with Trump again? He said, it's not proactive, the president has to initiate.

Interest Rate Probability Forecast (CME):

Probability of maintaining no change in June: 80.2%

Probability of a 25 basis point cut in July: 59.1%

Probability of a cut of over 50 basis points in July? Essentially no chance.