Use the language you understand to break down today's BTC trend:
Golden Quote Opening
"The wolf is here for the third time, the dog's sickle is hidden behind the feint" 7——BTC has been swaying under the pressure cooker lid of $98,366 three times, each high surge sacrificing retail investors; today's fourth attempt's success depends entirely on the volume, this "lid-opening artifact".
Technical Metrics
MACD Exposed
The red bars are getting shorter, the volume during the surge to $98,366 at dawn is 30% smaller than the large bullish candle on May 6, hard spraying the water gun against the steel plate can only be smashed back.
Bollinger Band Mysticism
After three failed attempts, the success rate for the fourth is 60%, which is the consensus among retail investors. But the dog likes to play "the wolf is here," the first three false breakthroughs cultivate retail inertia; just when you think it’s another fake move, the real breakthrough comes instead.
Life-Saving Double Insurance
$97,000 is the lifeline for bulls and bears; if it breaks, watch for $95,300. Here gathers the two defensive lines EMA7 and EMA30, equivalent to a double resurrection point.
News Cycle Nuclear Button
The Federal Reserve's decision at 2 AM is the main event. Although the consensus is no change in interest rates, Powell's speech might trigger a nuclear bomb—yesterday's US-China trade news just pulled back from V to -10, and tonight's hawkish remarks could turn a $100,000 dream into a $90,000 nightmare in minutes.
Classic Routine
On May 6, the morning session saw a surge breaking $98,000 with the whole network shouting bull; in the afternoon, the volume was halved, crashing to $95,300. This morning, the dog used the same routine again, raising prices then flipping contracts, training retail investors' muscle memory to "short on breakthrough".
Survival Guide
Spot traders: Set sell orders at $98,500, sell 10% with every $500 rise, keep 20% as a safety net against being caught in a contract. Contract dogs: Watch the 1-minute K-line when breaking $98,366; join if the volume exceeds the peak of May 6, set stop-loss at $200. Zen faction: Clear positions before 21:30, avoid Powell's "mine-sweeping time".
Ultimate Reminder
This market is like a casino guessing big or small; the dog has called "small" three times, the fourth time it is likely to hold back for a "big". Remember: If the false breakthrough happens for the third time, the real action hides within collective doubt.
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